XPost: uk.radio.amateur, uk.politics.misc, uk.d-i-y 
 From: crazy@last.com 
  
 On 13/10/2019 12:49, Col wrote: 
 > On 13/10/2019 12:18, nightjar wrote: 
 >> On 12/10/2019 15:40, Stephen Cole wrote: 
 >>> Dave Plowman (News)  wrote: 
 >>>> In article , 
 >>>> €€€€€€ Cursitor Doom  wrote: 
 >>>>> I still have a legitimate interest, mate. And if there's another 
 >>>>> Referendum I'll be voting in it again, same as before, just like 
 >>>>> everyone else who voted Leave - plus not a few former Remainers who've 
 >>>>> seen the light over the last 3 years. 
 >>>> 
 >>>> Oddly, most the polls seem to show the opposite has happened. 
 >>>> 
 >>> 
 >>> That€€€s no surprise as the electorate has changed; a million or more 
 dead 
 >>> Leave voters and a couple million freshly-minted teenage voters since 
 >>> June 
 >>> 2016. The longer that Brexit is fobbed off before a 2nd referendum 
 >>> the more 
 >>> the scales will tip toward Remain. 
 >>> 
 >> 
 >> It is more complicated than that. 
 >> 
 >> As the population ages, it tends to get more right wing, so the ones 
 >> that die off are replaced by others and the balance due to age remains 
 >> much the same over time. OTOH, there is a generational effect, with 
 >> each generation currently tending to be slightly more left wing than 
 >> the one before. That means that, although the older a generation gets 
 >> the more right wing, on average, it becomes, it doesn't become quite 
 >> as right wing as the one before it. 
 >> 
 >> However, to add to all that, people with higher levels of education (A 
 >> level or above) appear to be more likely to support remain and the 
 >> overall level of education of the population is rising a few percent 
 >> each year. 
 >> 
 >> The net effect is that there will be a trend towards greater support 
 >> for remain, but I'm not sure that 3-4 years is long enough for that to 
 >> make a significant difference. 
 >> 
 >> Of greater influence are probably dissatisfaction with the mess that 
 >> the Brexiteers have made of the process so far and a growing 
 >> realisation of just how much of the Leave campaign was pure fantasy. 
 >> 
 > 
 > I have always thought that there was a degree of complacency amongst 
 > remainers during the referendum. The polls always seemed to show a 
 > reasonably comfortable lead for remain and I think relatively few people 
 > genuinely thought that leave would win, so some remainers probably 
 > stayed at home. 
 > 
 > If there is a second referendum then there would certainly be no 
 > complacency! 
 > 
  
  
 Conversely,  *ALL* the polls at the time of the Referendum, said Remain 
 would win so some Brexiters may have displayed the very same complacency 
 you describe? 
  
 "If Remain are bound to win no point in my voting to leave"! 
  
 Plus!  There are many people in my experience who like to be seen voting 
 for the winning side, youngsters especially love to be 'liked' just look 
 at their puerile social media pages!  Their are more youngsters topping 
 themselves simply because they have gained dislikes on social media! 
  
 In other words, how many people voted stay because the 'polls' suggested 
 they would appear to be the winners. 
  
 Once an election or referendum, as in this case, has been planned, then 
 I believe absolutely no more results of 'polls' should be made to the 
 public until the polling booths close!  It would be a small start in 
 making people think for themselves instead of feeling a need to belong 
 to the 'right' tribe! 
  
 I have said for a long time now, if there was a mechanism to bring in a 
 second referendum, Brexiters will wipe the floor with a majority though 
 whatever the count, that would put us back to day one when the Remainers 
 would refute yet another democratic vote! 
  
 omega 
  
 --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05 
  * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)