PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT   
   NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR   
   600 AM CST MON NOV 11 2013   
      
   ...THE OUTLOOK FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER...   
      
   NOVEMBER 11TH THROUGH 15TH IS WINTER WEATHER AWARENESS WEEK   
   IN ARKANSAS...AND IT HAS BEEN SO PROCLAIMED BY GOVERNOR MIKE   
   BEBEE. SPONSORS OF THE AWARENESS WEEK ARE THE NATIONAL   
   WEATHER SERVICE...THE ARKANSAS DEPARTMENT OF EMERGENCY   
   MANAGEMENT...ENTERGY ARKANSAS...THE ELECTRIC COOPERATIVES   
   OF ARKANSAS...THE ARKANSAS NATIONAL GUARD...THE ARKANSAS   
   STATE POLICE...AND THE AMERICAN RED CROSS.   
      
   PEOPLE ARE ASKED TO TAKE SOME TIME TO PREPARE FOR THE UPCOMING   
   WINTER SEASON.   
      
   TODAYS TOPIC IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER.   
      
   LAST WINTER IN ARKANSAS...TEMPERATURES WERE ABOVE NORMAL IN ALL   
   PARTS OF THE STATE...GENERALLY FROM 1 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.   
   TOTAL PRECIPITATION RANGED FROM NEAR NORMAL TO AS MUCH AS 4.5   
   INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.   
      
   THE BIGGEST WEATHER STORY THIS PAST WINTER WAS THE CHRISTMAS   
   WINTER STORM THAT DUMPED HEAVY WET SNOW ON A SWATH FROM   
   WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE   
   AND INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. THE LARGEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW   
   REPORTED WERE 18 INCHES ON PETIT JEAN MOUNTAIN IN CONWAY   
   COUNTY...17.5 INCHES AT PERRY IN PERRY COUNTY...AND 15 INCHES   
   AT JESSIEVILLE IN GARLAND COUNTY AND UNION VALLEY IN PERRY   
   COUNTY.   
      
   SINCE THE WINTER OF 1987-88...ONLY THE WINTERS OF 2000-01...   
   2002-03...2009-10...AND 2010-11 HAVE AVERAGED BELOW NORMAL ON   
   TEMPERATURES IN LITTLE ROCK.   
      
   THE CONFIDENCE IN THE OUTLOOK FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER /THE MONTHS   
   OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...AND FEBRUARY/ IS SOMEHWAT LESS THAN IT IS   
   IN SOME YEARS. ENSO /EL NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION/ NEUTRAL   
   CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE WINTER...WHICH MEANS THAT   
   NEITHER EL NINO /A WARMING OF OCEAN WATERS IN THE EQUATORIAL   
   PACIFIC/ NOR LA NINA /A COOLING OF THE OCEAN WATERS IN THE   
   EQUATORIAL PACIFIC/ WILL BE OCCURRING.   
      
   IN YEARS PAST WHEN THE CURRENT GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN WAS   
   OCCURRING...TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION IN ARKANSAS GENERALLY   
   ENDED UP NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.  IN ADDITION...WINTERS   
   OFTEN STARTED OFF COLDER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL AND THEN ENDED UP   
   WARMER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL.  THESE FACTORS WOULD IMPLY THAT   
   SNOW AND ICE WOULD BE MOST COMMON DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE   
   WINTER AND CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WOULD INCREASE TOWARD THE   
   END OF WINTER.   
      
   ANOTHER FACTOR THAT COMES INTO PLAY...FROM TIME TO TIME...IN THE   
   WEATHER THAT OCCURS DURING THE WINTER IS THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION.   
   THIS IS A PRESSURE PATTERN IN THE ARCTIC REGION. WHEN THE ARCTIC   
   OSCILLATION IS NEGATIVE...COLD AIR SPILLS DOWN FROM THE POLAR   
   REGIONS. IF THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION IS POSITIVE...A PERIOD OF ABOVE   
   NORMAL TEMPERATURES GENERALLY PREVAILS.   
      
   THE DIFFICULTY IN MAKING LONG RANGE OUTLOOKS IS THAT WHAT   
   THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION IS GOING TO DO CAN GENERALLY BE FORESEEN   
   ONLY A COUPLE OF WEEKS IN ADVANCE. THUS...EVEN IF THE ARCTIC   
   OSCILLATION WERE GOING TO BE A MAJOR FACTOR THIS COMING   
   WINTER...THAT COULD NOT BE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.   
      
   THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS WINTERTIME NORMALS FOR ARKANSAS.   
      
   CITY        NORMAL HIGH      NORMAL LOW     NORMAL PRECIPITATION   
   BENTONVILLE         48.0            25.3                8.67   
   EUREKA SPRINGS      47.9            28.1                8.96   
   FAYETTEVILLE        47.7            26.1`               8.85   
   HARRISON            48.3            28.3                8.40   
   MOUNTAIN HOME       47.9            27.5               10.30   
   JONESBORO           48.2            28.1               12.03   
   FORT SMITH          52.3            31.1                8.86   
   BATESVILLE          51.0            26.9               11.48   
   NEWPORT             47.8            31.0               12.44   
   RUSSELLVILLE        52.9            30.6               11.59   
   SEARCY              51.1            29.2               12.28   
   CONWAY              51.5            29.5               12.18   
   MENA                51.5            29.6               12.84   
   HOT SPRINGS         52.4            33.3               13.30   
   LITTLE ROCK         52.6            33.1               12.18   
   NORTH LITTLE ROCK   51.7            34.7               12.09   
   PINE BLUFF          53.4            33.9               14.10   
   CAMDEN              56.5            32.2               14.12   
   MAGNOLIA            56.2            33.3               14.07   
   MONTICELLO          55.4            35.6               15.30   
   WARREN              54.8            33.4               15.84   
   TEXARKANA           56.0            35.8               12.44   
   EL DORADO           56.6            34.8               14.27   
      
   AN IMPORTANT THING TO NOTE REGARDING THE OUTLOOK FOR THE COMING   
   WINTER...NO MATTER WHAT THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK INDICATES...   
   VARIABILITY CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE TEMPERATURE PATTERNS DURING THE   
   WINTER. THERE ARE USUALLY SOME PERIODS OF NOTICEABLY COLD WEATHER   
   INTERSPERSED WITH MILDER PERIODS.   
      
   SEASONAL OUTLOOKS ARE NOT SPECIFIC ENOUGH TO SAY WHETHER THERE WILL   
   BE ANY BIG OUTBREAKS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OR TORNADOES DURING THE   
   WINTER. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN THAT IS EXPECTED HAS   
   BEEN KNOWN TO PRODUCE SOME SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE WINTER...   
   ESPECIALLY IN FEBRUARY.   
      
   LIKEWISE...SEASONAL OUTLOOKS CANNOT BE SPECIFIC REGARDING LARGE ICE   
   OR SNOWSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR   
   THE WINTER OFTEN DOES PRODUCE SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION.   
      
   &&   
      
   A MAP SHOWING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE CHRISTMAS WINTER STORM CAN   
   BE FOUND AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LZK/?N=DEC2012.HTM  /MUST BE IN   
   LOWER CASE LETTERS/   
      
   ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE WINTER OUTLOOK FOR ARKANSAS CAN BE   
   FOUND AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LZK/?N=WINLOOK1314.HTM  /MUST BE   
   IN LOWER CASE LETTERS/   
      
   $$   
      
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