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   ACUS02 KWNS 190602   
   SWODY2   
   SPC AC 190600   
      
   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1200 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026   
      
   Valid 201200Z - 211200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY   
   EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN   
   MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...GEORGIA AND PERHAPS ADJACENT PORTIONS OF   
   SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Widely scattered, but generally weak, thunderstorm activity is   
   possible Friday east of the lower Great Lakes into Mid Atlantic and   
   Southeast.  A more substantive increase and clustering of   
   thunderstorms appears possible across parts of the northern Gulf   
   Coast states late Friday evening into early Saturday, which may pose   
   at least some risk for severe hail and localized strong, but   
   generally sub-severe wind gusts.   
      
   ...Discussion...   
   Models continue to indicate that mid/upper flow will undergo renewed   
   amplification across the central into eastern mid-latitude Pacific   
   through this period.  This is likely to include a significant short   
   wave trough digging south-southeast of the Gulf of Alaska (roughly   
   along 140W longitude), to the east of building ridging across and   
   north-northwest of the Aleutians.  Farther east, mid-level ridging   
   is forecast to build inland of the Pacific coast, with remnant   
   larger-scale downstream troughing developing eastward across the   
   Rockies through Mississippi Valley.   
      
   There remains spread among model output concerning the continuing   
   strength of a short wave perturbation, which earlier emerged   
   from this troughing, after it reaches southwestern portions of the   
   Great Lakes region by the beginning of the period.  It is generally   
   forecast to become sheared and weaken as it progresses to the south   
   of a blocking mid-level high centered near southern Hudson Bay, and   
   downstream troughing digging into the Canadian Maritimes and   
   northern New England.  However, it appears possible that it may   
   maintain considerable strength east-northeastward across the lower   
   Great Lakes region through the day Friday, while its associated   
   occluding surface cyclone weakens across Michigan.   
      
   It continues to appear that secondary surface cyclogenesis will be   
   slow/subdued from the lee of the Blue Ridge across and   
   east-northeast of the northern Mid Atlantic, before perhaps   
   undergoing more substantive deepening offshore Friday night.  The   
   trailing surface frontal zone probably will tend to stall across the   
   Carolinas, while retreating northward near the southern edge of the   
   strong westerlies across the Gulf Coast states by 12Z Saturday, in   
   advance of a short wave perturbation emerging from the Southwest.   
      
   Further low-level moistening associated with return flow off the   
   Gulf is probable along and south of the front.  However, warm   
   layers aloft, near the northwestern periphery of mid/upper   
   subtropical ridging centered across the Bahamas/Caribbean, may tend   
   inhibit destabilization and thunderstorm development through much of   
   Friday into Friday evening.   
      
   ...Gulf Coast States...   
   While mid/upper forcing for ascent associated with the short wave   
   trough emerging from the Southwest may remain well to the cool side   
   of the surface frontal zone, it appears that strengthening   
   lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection will support potential for   
   increasing thunderstorm development by late Friday evening and   
   continue overnight.  There appears a consensus among latest model   
   output that this will focus across parts of northern Mississippi,   
   Alabama and Georgia by 12Z Saturday.  While this is likely to become   
   rooted above a cool, stable near-surface layer, forecast soundings   
   indicate that an initially warm/dry capping layer above the moist   
   layer will contribute to convectively unstable thermodynamic   
   profiles, which may become conducive to severe hail, in the presence   
   of strong cloud bearing layer shear.  Potential for severe gusts   
   appears low, but as activity strengthens and perhaps organizes   
   overnight, gusty surface winds may accompany activity.   
      
   ..Kerr.. 02/19/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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