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   Excessive Rainfall Discussion...CORRECTED   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   244 PM EST Wed Feb 18 2026   
      
   Corrected for typo in last sentence of Day 2 text   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 16Z Wed Feb 18 2026 - 12Z Thu Feb 19 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Otto   
      
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Thu Feb 19 2026 - 12Z Fri Feb 20 2026   
      
   A potent mid-level shortwave/closed low is forecast to bring   
   another round of heavier precipitation to southern CA beginning   
   Thursday morning, ahead of a progressive cold front. Peak model=20   
   consensus of MUCAPE no greater than 250 J/kg and IVT values of=20   
   300-400 kg/m/s appear to be slightly weaker than what was=20   
   associated with the round of heavier rain which impacted the=20   
   Transverse Ranges early Wednesday morning. However, locally high=20   
   48-72 rainfall totals have impacted portions of southern CA along=20   
   with a number of flooding reports since Monday.   
      
   The next round to affect southern California's Transverse and=20   
   Peninsular Ranges is expected to bring peak hourly rainfall values   
   in the 0.5 to 1.0 inch range on Thursday (12Z HREF probs for=20   
   greater than 0.5 inches in 1 hour were 30-40 percent), from roughly   
   15Z/18 to 03Z/19, advancing southward along the coast with time.=20   
   Given the progressive nature, peak total rainfall is forecast to=20   
   fall in the 1 to 2 inch range for the Transverse and Peninsula=20   
   Ranges but could be a bit higher for the Peninsular Ranges given a=20   
   longer and more favorable fetch of low level moisture into the   
   region. While the 12Z NAM_nest is likely overdone, it does show 3+   
   inch potential for localized areas below snow levels which look to   
   briefly rise in the 5000-6000 foot range. Any flood related=20   
   impacts should remain isolated and minor in magnitude.   
      
   Otto   
      
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Fri Feb 20 2026 - 12Z Sat Feb 21 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Otto   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5N6V9V2B7mOBPkkk83gviV1QOp-KPIThnoDtotJCDSMp=   
   Oxs1D9J8KAZl4bq-GQtCL1HCHu6xjK6pCKGFmVnr3otuy5g$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5N6V9V2B7mOBPkkk83gviV1QOp-KPIThnoDtotJCDSMp=   
   Oxs1D9J8KAZl4bq-GQtCL1HCHu6xjK6pCKGFmVnrzXQnRvQ$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5N6V9V2B7mOBPkkk83gviV1QOp-KPIThnoDtotJCDSMp=   
   Oxs1D9J8KAZl4bq-GQtCL1HCHu6xjK6pCKGFmVnrxLulBk0$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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