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   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   ACUS03 KWNS 181932   
   SWODY3   
   SPC AC 181931   
      
   Day 3 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0131 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026   
      
   Valid 201200Z - 211200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Probabilities for severe storms Friday through Friday night appear   
   less than 5 percent across the U.S.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   Mid-level flow will remain strong and largely zonal over the   
   southern US Day 3/Friday. A pronounced shortwave trough will move   
   eastward toward the Atlantic Coast as subtropical ridging slowly   
   builds over the Gulf Coast. A second low-amplitude trough over the   
   Southwest will eject eastward and move into the Southeast early   
   Saturday. A deep surface low associated with the first trough will   
   occlude over the Great Lakes as its associated cold front continues   
   to surge eastward across the upper OH valley. Trailing portions of   
   the front will begin to stall across the Southeast and lower MS   
   Valley Friday evening.   
      
   ...Lower MS Valley and Gulf Coast States...   
   To the south of the strong southwesterly flow aloft, gradual   
   moistening of the low-level air mass is likely Friday and Friday   
   night along and south of the stalled front. While deep-layer ascent   
   will be limited along the anticyclonic curved portion of the strong   
   subtropical jet through much of the day, the approach of the   
   secondary upper trough may support increased ascent late.   
      
   As mid/upper forcing for ascent moves eastward, it is expected to   
   remain mostly to the cool side of the front. Some potential for   
   stronger thunderstorm development seems likely to become focused   
   along or just to the cool side of the frontal zone late Friday night   
   into early Saturday. Low/mid-level lapse rates and buoyancy appear   
   generally weak despite strong flow aloft. Model guidance also varies   
   significantly on destabilization and moistening near the front.   
   This, along with the late arrival of the stronger forcing suggests   
   that while some stronger elevated storms are possible near the   
   front, the risk is too conditional to introduce probabilities.   
      
   ...Upper OH Valley...   
   As the surface low occludes, a strong cold front associated with the   
   advancing upper trough will surge through portions of eastern OH and   
   PA. A shallow line of weak convection is possible along the front   
   owing to weak low-level moisture advection and strong ascent tied to   
   the front. Largely devoid of meaningful buoyancy, little to no   
   lightning is expected. Whoever, the presence of 100+ kt of mid-level   
   flow could allow mixing of a few stronger wind gusts to the surface   
   through the morning Friday. Minimal buoyancy and the lack of more   
   robust moisture will preclude any severe probabilities.   
      
   ..Lyons.. 02/18/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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