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   ACUS02 KWNS 181730   
   SWODY2   
   SPC AC 181729   
      
   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1129 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026   
      
   Valid 191200Z - 201200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF   
   THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Severe thunderstorms, with potential to produce a few tornadoes,   
   hail and damaging wind gusts, are possible across parts of the   
   middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys Thursday afternoon into   
   early evening.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   A progressive mid-level flow regime, characterized by multiple   
   low-amplitudes perturbations and strong west/southwesterly flow   
   aloft is expected over the CONUS Day2/Thursday. The primary   
   shortwave trough will move from the southern Rockies/Plains into the   
   Midwest by 00z, assuming a slight negative tilt as multiple weaker   
   preceding subtropical perturbation are absorbed. Strong ascent   
   associated with the trough a 100+ kt mid-level jet streak will   
   deepen a surface low over the eastern Plains, reaching the Great   
   Lakes by early Friday.   
      
   ...Middle Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valley...   
   As the upper trough and surface low approach the Mid MS Valley early   
   Thursday, rapid low-level moistening is expected across parts of   
   eastern MO western IL and the lower OH Valley. While moisture   
   content is seasonably limited (surface dewpoints in the 50s to near   
   60 F), cooling mid-level temperatures ahead of the preceding   
   subtropical shortwave trough will support some destabilization   
   Thursday afternoon.   
      
   While instability will remain modest owing to limited boundary-layer   
   moisture, clearing ahead of a surging dryline tied to the surface   
   low  will allow for diurnal heating. In combination with steepening   
   mid-level lapse rates, around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is exacted by   
   early afternoon. An arc of mainly cellular convection should develop   
   by mid afternoon across far eastern MO and western to south-central   
   IL and move quickly eastward. Amid very strong kinematic fields   
   (EBWD 55+ kt) a supercell mode is expected. Strong low-level shear   
   and the concentration of buoyancy in the lowest few km will favor   
   strong vertical accelerations and stretching with seasonably cool   
   mid-level temperatures. Hail is likely with the stronger rotating   
   storms. Additionally, with backed low-level flow near the low/warm   
   front and large low-level shear, (0-1 km BWD 25+ kt) a few tornadoes   
   are possible.   
      
   As ascent spreads eastward, thunderstorm activity may eventually   
   grow upscale enough to support increasing potential for damaging   
   wind gusts given the strong background flow. However, decreasing   
   buoyancy and weakening height falls with eastward extent should   
   gradually limit convective intensity into parts of the middle OH   
   Valley late Thursday evening.   
      
   ..Lyons.. 02/18/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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