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   ACUS48 KWNS 180957   
   SWOD48   
   SPC AC 180956   
      
   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0356 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026   
      
   Valid 211200Z - 261200Z   
      
   ...DISCUSSION...   
   Latest medium-range guidance indicates little further amplification   
   of large-scale mid-level troughing across the eastern mid-latitude   
   Pacific, but a broad embedded cyclonic circulation, with a number of   
   shorter wavelength perturbations pivoting around its periphery, may   
   continue to evolve through this coming weekend.  These may be   
   accompanied by multiple areas of surface cyclogenesis, including one   
   cyclone with an occluding front which may advance into northern   
   Pacific coastal areas late Saturday night into early Sunday.   
   However, it appears that the coldest mid-level air, supportive of   
   boundary-layer based destabilization conducive to thunderstorms,   
   might remain offshore.   
      
   At the same time, downstream amplification of mid-level ridging may   
   continue across the Rockies and Great Plains Saturday into Sunday,   
   with subsequent amplification of troughing east of the Mississippi   
   Valley through areas offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard   
   Sunday through Monday.  This is likely to be accompanied by cold   
   surface ridging building south-southeastward to the lee of the   
   Rockies, through much of the Gulf Basin, which probably will   
   suppress convective potential through the remainder of the period.   
      
   While the environment may be at least conditionally supportive of   
   strong to severe thunderstorm development along a frontal zone   
   across parts of the eastern Gulf Coast into southern Atlantic Coast   
   early this coming weekend, surface frontal wave development across   
   inland areas on Saturday is forecast to remain weak, tending to   
   minimize this potential.   
      
   ..Kerr.. 02/18/2026   
      
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