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   ACUS03 KWNS 180830   
   SWODY3   
   SPC AC 180829   
      
   Day 3 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0229 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026   
      
   Valid 201200Z - 211200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Probabilities for severe storms Friday through Friday night appear   
   less than 5 percent across the U.S.   
      
   ...Discussion...   
   Models indicate that mid/upper flow may undergo renewed   
   amplification across the central into eastern mid-latitude Pacific,   
   including a significant short wave trough digging south-southeast of   
   the Gulf of Alaska (roughly along 140W longitude), to the east of   
   building ridging across and north-northwest of the Aleutians.   
   Farther east, mid-level ridging is forecast to build inland of the   
   Pacific coast, with remnant larger-scale downstream troughing   
   developing eastward across the Rockies through Mississippi Valley.   
      
   An initially vigorous short wave perturbation, which earlier emerged   
   from this troughing, may maintain considerable strength into the day   
   Friday while progressing east-northeastward toward the lower Great   
   Lakes region.  However, it is still generally forecast to become   
   sheared and weaken to the south of a mid-level high centered near   
   southern Hudson/James Bays.  As it does, the associated occluding   
   cyclone is forecast to substantively weaken.  It continues to appear   
   that secondary surface cyclogenesis across and east-northeast of the   
   Mid Atlantic region will remain subdued, and the primary trailing   
   surface frontal zone probably will tend to stall near the southern   
   periphery of the stronger westerlies, across parts of the Carolinas   
   into the Gulf Coast states by 12Z Saturday.   
      
   Further low-level moistening associated with return flow off the   
   Gulf is probable along and south of this front.  However, warm   
   layers aloft, near the northwestern periphery of mid/upper   
   subtropical ridging centered across the Bahamas/Caribbean, may tend   
   inhibit destabilization and thunderstorm development.  As mid/upper   
   forcing for ascent, associated with short waves within the strong   
   flow emerging from the Southwest, remains mostly to the cool side of   
   the front, potential for stronger thunderstorm development seems   
   likely to become focused along or just to the cool side of the   
   frontal zone.   
      
   While deep-layer shear near the front is likely to be strong and   
   potentially supportive of organized thunderstorm development, the   
   extent to which thermodynamic profiles become conducive to a risk   
   for severe weather remains unclear.  It appears that   
   lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates will be generally weak, and most   
   unstable CAPE is forecast anywhere from modest to weak.  At the   
   present time the risk for severe thunderstorms Friday through Friday   
   night appears mostly conditional, and too conditional support a   
   forecast of 5 percent or greater severe probabilities.  However,   
   this could still change in later outlook updates for this period,   
   particularly across parts of the Gulf Coast states.   
      
   ..Kerr.. 02/18/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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