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   FOUS11 KWBC 180725   
   QPFHSD   
      
   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   225 AM EST Wed Feb 18 2026   
      
   Valid 12Z Wed Feb 18 2026 - 12Z Sat Feb 21 2026   
      
      
   ...Pacific & Interior Northwest...   
   Days 1-2...   
      
   The longwave trough that has led to multiple days worth of   
   accumulating snowfall looks to continue through at least Thursday   
   morning before a upper level ridge pattern builds in late in the   
   day Thursday and persist through Friday. Snow levels along I-5 will   
   creep as far down as 500ft this morning and again on Thursday   
   morning, but moderate-to-locally heavy snow will reside in the   
   >2,000ft elevations of the OR Cascades and above 3,000ft in the WA   
   Cascades. Farther east, the Blue Mountains on east into the   
   Bitterroots and Sawtooths will be heavy snow above 3,000ft (Blues &   
   Bitterroots) and above 4,000ft (Sawtooth). The heaviest snowfall   
   will unfold in the Absaroka, Tetons, Wind River, and Bear River   
   Ranges where they not only have the higher elevations, but also   
   reside where the riches 700-300mb moisture source will be and   
   beneath the diffluent left-exit region of a 250-500mb layer jet   
   streak. WPC probabilities moderate-to-high chances (40-70%) for   
   snowfall >12" in the peaks of these mountains ranges, as well as   
   the peaks of the OR Cascades. In the Willamette Valley, most   
   snowfall totals are likely to be less than 1", although some areas   
   close to Eugene, OR could eclipse 1". Expect hazardous travel   
   conditions in the passes of the Northern Rockies and OR Cascades   
   through Thursday morning.   
      
   ...California...   
   Days 1-2...   
      
   ...Heavy, disruptive snowfall for the California ranges to persist   
   through Thursday...   
      
   California remains ideally placed ahead of 500mb disturbances   
   rotating around the western flank of a large longwave trough   
   anchored over the western U.S.. Snow levels in northern CA are as   
   low as 1,000ft, down to 2,500 ft in the Sierra Nevada, and   
   4,000-5,000 ft in the Transverse Ranges this morning. After a day   
   generally upslope-driven snowfall on Wednesday, by Thursday, a   
   phasing of shortwaves diving southeast from the Pacific NW coast   
   will produce heavier snowfall totals throughout the CA mountain   
   ranges. Similar to the Northwest, upper ridging will provide a   
   break in the heavy snowfall threat beginning late Thursday and   
   continuing into Friday.   
      
   Additional snowfall of 1-2 feet are likely for the northern Sierra Nevada   
   above 3,000ft, while in the southern Sierra, elevations above 4,000   
   can expect several more feet in the highest elevations. The WSSI   
   continues to indicate widespread Major impacts are likely for just   
   about all of the Sierra NEvada above 4,000ft Sierra Nevada through   
   Thursday. This includes not only Donner Pass, but in the   
   Shasta/Siskiyou where Moderate to locally Major Impacts are   
   possible along I-5 mountain passes. In Southern California,   
   additional snowfall accumulations over a foot are forecast above   
   6,000ft in the Transverse Ranges with localized amounts exceeding 2   
   feet possible in the peaks of the San Gabriel and San Bernadino   
   Mountains through Thursday.   
      
      
   ...Intermountain West/Southwest to the Rockies...   
   Days 1-3...   
      
   Pacific moisture spilling over the Cascades and Sierra-Nevada will   
   provide a much-needed boost to the Intermountain and Rocky Mountain   
   snowpack. Following a warm start, snow levels will drop into the   
   valleys as the leading shortwave moves inland on Wednesday. A brief   
   lull is expected on Thursday, except for Nevada and the Four   
   Corners region, where the next shortwave will bring the threat for   
   heavy mountain snow into Friday. Probabilities for storm total   
   amounts over a foot exceed 70 percent for several areas including   
   the high elevations of the Nevada mountains, the southern Utah   
   mountains, the northern Arizona plateaus to the central Mogollon   
   Rim, and much of the central Rockies - particularly the northern   
   Utah and western Colorado ranges.   
      
      
   ...Northern Plains & Upper Great Lakes...   
   Days 1-2...   
      
   The winter storm is ongoing this morning with heavy snow blanketing   
   much of northern ND, northern MN, and into the northern tier of   
   MI's Upper Peninsula. Heavy snow will continue to the north of the   
   500mb low as it tracks across southern MN and into northwest WI,   
   placing the MN Arrowhead perfectly placed beneath not just the   
   strongest upper-level divergence, but easterly flow off Lake   
   Superior is upsloping into the Arrowhead. Snowfall rates of 1-2"/hr   
   will be common this morning and through midday but rates should   
   gradually weaken this afternoon and tonight. The closed low will   
   meander over the western MI U.P. through Thursday morning, keeping   
   periods of light-to-moderate snow in the forecast over northern MN   
   through Thursday morning. Snowfall totals of 1-2 feet are expected   
   in the MN Arrowhead with localized amounts surpassing 30" possible   
   by the time this storm concludes.   
      
   Additionally, with the pronounced WAA rotating around the surface   
   low, an area of freezing rain is also expected, especially from   
   just south of Duluth, MN eastward across northern WI and into   
   northern MI where the warm nose will be most prevalent while   
   surface temps remain sub-freezing. This sets the stage for a   
   freezing rain/icing event that could last over 24 hours in parts   
   of northern WI and northern MI. WPC probabilities are moderate-to-   
   high (50-80%) for at least 1/10 inch of ice, with locally more   
   than a quarter inch possible, most likely across the tip of   
   Michigan's Mitten, mainly areas east of Grand Traverse Bay.   
      
      
   ...Northeast...   
   Days 1-3...   
      
   A strong surface low moving slowly across the Dakotas/Minnesota   
   today will remain entrenched within an elongated mid-level trough   
   extending into the Mid-Atlantic states. Vorticity lobes downstream   
   of this wave will spread northeast from the Mid-Atlantic states   
   into the Northeast, before getting sheared to the east as mid-level   
   flow becomes strongly confluent south of the secondary shortwave   
   energy crossing Maine and Nova Scotia. The resultant mid- level PVA   
   and divergence will overlap with a narrow ribbon of impressive   
   low-level WAA to produce a stripe of moderate-to- locally heavy   
   precipitation from Upstate NY through southern/central New England.   
      
   Periods of snow will unfold from the eastern shores of Lake Ontario   
   going east across the Tug Hill, southern tier of the Adirondacks,   
   and as far east as the Green and Berkshires. Snowfall totals are   
   most likely to range between a coating to 3", although some   
   localized totals topping 4" are possible in parts of the   
   Adirondacks and Berkshires. While the atmosphere is likely to   
   remain below freezing in these areas, a narrow warm- nose aloft   
   from I-90 in western NY on east through the Catskills, Poconos, and   
   even portions of southern New England are likely to see freezing   
   rain. The section of western NY located along and north of I90,   
   including the Rochester area, are most concerning when it comes to   
   travel impacts. WPC probabilities show high chances (>70%) for ice   
   accumulations over one-tenth of an inch there and low-to- moderate   
   chances (20-50%) for totals over one- quarter inch. This area does   
   show the potential for Moderate Impacts (hazardous driving   
   conditions, closures possible) today. Farther east, most ice   
   amounts are likely to come in under a tenth of an inch from the   
   Finger Lakes on east through southern NY (not NYC proper), the   
   Poconos, and southern New England, but localized Minor Impacts are   
   denoted on the WSSI today.   
      
   Following a brief break in the action Thursday, a storm system   
   strengthening in the Midwest will direct a plume of 850-300mb   
   moisture towards the Northeast amidst increasing WAA Thursday night.   
   To the north, high pressure over southeast Canada is building in   
   with a weak CAD signature forming over the region. This sets the   
   stage for yet more ice from northern into the heart of the   
   Northeast. The Poconos, Catskills, southern Adirondacks, and   
   Berkshires have moderate chances (40-70%) for ice accumulations   
   over one-tenth of an inch, while many areas from the Lehigh Valley   
   on north and east into southern New England. The higher elevations   
   of the Poconos and Catskills could see localized ice accumulations   
   approach one-quarter inch. In the northern Appalachians, the   
   atmosphere will remain cold enough to support periods of snow that   
   look to fall heavily at times Friday and into Friday evening. WPC   
   probabilities show moderate-to- high chances (50-70%) for snowfall   
   totals >4" in the northern Adirondacks, Green, and White mountains   
   with low chances (10-40%) for localized amounts surpassing 8".   
      
      
   ...Central Plains...   
   Days 1-2...   
      
   Tonight, a potent shortwave trough ejecting out of the Central   
   Rockies will take on a negative tilt as it heads into the Central   
   Plains. To the north of the 500mb vort max, strong 700mb Q-vector   
   confluence will focus a narrow area of strong vertical velocities,   
   coinciding with a pronounced TROWAL forming over the Black Hills on   
   east into the Sand Hills of NE early Thursday morning. Most   
   guidance agrees the impressive synoptic-scale support aloft (left-   
   exit region of a 250mb jet streak over head) and strong SErly 850mb   
   WAA will support heavy snowfall rates, and confidence is   
   increasing in the Black Hills and the Sand Hills being the hardest   
   hit. Latest WPC probabilities show moderate chances (40-60%) for   
   >6" of snow in the Black Hills and Sand Hills on east along the   
   NE/SD border and into southeast SD. It is worth noting there are   
   low-to-moderate chance probabilities (20-50%) for >8" of snowfall   
   in these areas as well. Given the strong dynamics and banding   
   potential, localized totals surpassing 10" cannot be ruled out.   
   Note that there does remain some uncertainty on the exact placement   
   of the heavy snow banding, but guidance is in fairly good   
   agreement a band of snow generating warning-level snowfall has   
   moderate chances (40-60%) over western NE. Residents in the   
   Central Plains should monitor the forecast from their local WFO   
   closely in the coming days. Minor snowfall accumulating of 1-4" are   
   possible as far west as east-central WY with some potential for   
   4-6" worth of snow in eastern NE to the north of the Omaha area.   
      
      
   Mullinax/Kleebauer/Pereira   
      
      
      
      
      
      
   $$   
      
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