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   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1200 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026   
      
   Valid 191200Z - 201200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MUCH OF CENTRAL   
   AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN   
   KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Severe thunderstorms, with potential to produce a few tornadoes and   
   damaging wind gusts, are possible across parts of the middle   
   Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys Thursday afternoon into early   
   evening.   
      
   ...Discussion...   
   There remains notable spread evident in the latest model output   
   concerning a number of synoptic and sub-synoptic developments within   
   the evolving pattern across North America through this period.  In   
   general, though, guidance continues to indicate that larger-scale   
   mid-level troughing will slowly begin to shift inland of the Pacific   
   coast Thursday through Thursday night, while being maintained   
   downstream across the Rockies, Great Plains and Mississippi Valley,   
   and slowly developing toward the lower Great Lakes and Appalachians   
   vicinity.  As this occurs, the center of a mid-level subtropical   
   ridge is likely to shift from the southern Gulf Basin into the   
   Bahamas/Caribbean, with its northern periphery maintaining an   
   influence across parts of the Southeast.   
      
   A couple of initially lower amplitude short wave perturbations,   
   within a seasonably strong belt of flow emerging from the Southwest,   
   may be in the process of progressing into and across the central   
   Great Plains toward the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys at   
   the outset of the period.  The lead perturbation, probably   
   accompanied by a 500 mb speed maximum of 90-100+ kts, is forecast to   
   continue into and across the lower Ohio Valley during the day, as   
   the trailing one pivots northeastward and perhaps intensifies across   
   the middle Mississippi Valley toward southern Great Lakes region   
   later Thursday through Thursday night.   
      
   Associated with these developments, a sub-1000 mb surface cyclone is   
   forecast to migrate across and northeast of the lower Missouri   
   Valley during the day, perhaps slowly deepening, before continuing   
   toward the upper Great Lakes accompanied by more substantive   
   deepening Thursday night.   
      
   ...Middle Mississippi/Lower Ohio Valley...   
   It appears that warming aloft, associated with subsidence to the   
   south of the trailing mid/upper jet, will tend to eventually   
   overspread the better (but still relatively modest) low-level   
   moisture return to the evolving warm sector across the lower Ohio   
   Valley.  However, to still differing degrees, the latest runs of the   
   various model output indicate a window of opportunity for strong to   
   severe thunderstorm development, perhaps beginning by early   
   afternoon, aided by daytime heating and subtle mid-level   
   cooling/forcing for ascent accompanying the lead jet streak.   
      
   The consensus of latest guidance, supported by the High Resolution   
   Ensemble and related machine learning output, suggests that this may   
   initiate across portions of Illinois, near or to the north and east   
   of the Greater St. Louis area, with strongest activity tending to   
   develop eastward and perhaps peak while spreading across east   
   central and portions of southeastern Illinois through portions of   
   central and southern Indiana by early Thursday evening.   
      
   Forecast soundings across this corridor remain generally   
   characterized by at least modest convective instability, and CAPE on   
   the order of 500-750+ J/kg, in the presence of strong deep-layer   
   shear.  Sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs, beneath   
   40-50+ kt south to southwest flow in the 850-700 mb layer, may   
   promote supercells capable of producing severe hail and a few   
   tornadoes, and activity may eventually grow upscale enough to   
   support increasing potential for damaging wind gusts before   
   convection wanes late Thursday evening.   
      
   ..Kerr.. 02/18/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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