TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 169642.weather@1:2320/105 2dfcf600   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS11 KWNS 180251   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 180251=20   
   CAZ000-180545-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 0093   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0851 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026   
      
   Areas affected...portions of the southern California Coastline   
      
   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20   
      
   Valid 180251Z - 180545Z   
      
   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent   
      
   SUMMARY...A few damaging convective gusts may accompany an   
   approaching band of thunderstorms over the next few hours. A severe   
   gust cannot be ruled out.   
      
   DISCUSSION...A pronounced mid-level trough is approaching the CA   
   coastline, and is accompanied by a 100+ kt mid-level jet streak,   
   which is poised to overspread southern CA through early tonight. A   
   convective band over coastal portions of San Luis Obispo County (and   
   just offshore) is progressing southeast and is intensifying (per   
   latest lightning trends), likely due in part to increased forcing   
   for ascent. Latest mesoanalysis depicts very scant buoyancy, with   
   SBCAPE likely only exceeding 250 J/kg in a few spots, and given the   
   cool maritime airmass and lack of insolation, an appreciable   
   increase in buoyancy is not expected. Nonetheless, increasing   
   tropospheric flow, driven by the approaching upper   
   trough/aforementioned jet streak, will provide a favorable ambient   
   wind field to be mechanically transported downward closer to the   
   surface by the intensifying line. As such, isolated strong wind   
   gusts, capable of at least downing a few trees, is likely this   
   evening and early overnight. A severe gust cannot be ruled out with   
   stronger portions of the line, especially with favorable interaction   
   with the higher terrain.   
      
   ..Squitieri/Hart.. 02/18/2026   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!_Fo-3NMaDThDGjmJw_urjV75qpq6ptI2ZwZAjHFUqGFC3twNM8DcOC_OM6vuFXOGteA_38EK_=   
   e9bahxs5PNWP588Sds$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...   
      
   LAT...LON   35532113 35522030 35081899 34561833 34321823 34091829   
               33941853 33861874 33991906 34151936 34271976 34332012   
               34422048 34532067 35012083 35252099 35532113=20   
      
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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