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   FOUS30 KWBC 180016   
   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   716 PM EST Tue Feb 17 2026   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 01Z Wed Feb 18 2026 - 12Z Wed Feb 18 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS   
   OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...   
      
   18/01Z update:   
   Leading shortwave within the larger scale trough has continued to   
   dig into portions of central California during the   
   afternoon...focusing low level WAA along/ahead of a cold front.   
   MRMS has depicted hourly rainfall rates generally 0.2 inches or   
   lower although isolated spots have briefly seen rates approach 0.5   
   inches. The southward progression will continue to limit overall   
   totals to below 2.5" even within the terrain (or below freezing   
   level along the lower slopes of the Sierra Nevada), but as noted   
   below the antecedent upper soils are fairly saturated and that   
   slightly above average run-off remains expected into the middle of   
   the night. Even so...any flooding would likely be minor or=20   
   localized and mostly affect urban settings and/or recent burn=20   
   scars, initially through central CA.   
      
   Through evening, there is some hint of some increased southerly=20   
   flow in the surface to boundary layer intersecting the pre-frontal=20   
   plume and IVT values may reach 500+ kg/m/s, however, the=20   
   intersection with terrain will be a bit more oblique than it was   
   24 hours ago...maintaining or slightly reducing the deep layer=20   
   moisture convergence that will be driving the rainfall rates=20   
   (still generally about .3-.5"/hr) mainly through 18/06Z.   
      
   Removed the northern portion of the Marginal Risk area where the   
   plume of deepest moisture and greatest coverage of rainfall has   
   pushed south. Given the steep mid-level lapse rates near the core   
   of the mid/upper level feature...there could still be isolated   
   moderate rainfall rates from passing showers but not with enough   
   intensity or duration to support a Marginal Risk. There were no   
   substantial changes to the Marginal Risk area farther south.   
      
   Gallina/Bann   
      
      
   ~~~~Prior Discussion~~~~   
   A mid-level disturbance centered over the Pacific Northwest Coast   
   will shift south and east into California today. At the surface, a   
   cold front will propagate through the Great Basin and arrive in   
   the Intermountain West by Wednesday morning. Scattered showers and   
   thunderstorms are expected to spread south from the north/central   
   California Coast to SoCal this evening.   
      
   Instability will be modest, between 50-150 J/Kg MUCAPE, between   
   00z-12z tonight, which coincides with when the mid-level vort max will   
   be directly overhead. Precipitable water values in the 0.5-0.75"   
   range won't be very anomalous (1-2 stndv), however isolated pockets   
   of efficient rain rates around 1" are possible within areas of   
   higher instability and PWATs. Upslope enhancement along the Central   
   California and Transverse ranges could lead to higher totals in   
   those areas. Lower snow levels on the backside of Monday's cold   
   frontal passage will see most of the higher mountain peaks realize   
   higher QPF in the form of snow.   
      
   Antecedent conditions from Monday's rainfall will make soils and   
   burn scars susceptible to runoff today. Urban areas will continue   
   to be vulnerable. HREF neighborhood probabilities show a strong   
   signal for at least 1 inch within much of the current marginal risk   
   area.   
      
   Kebede   
      
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Wed Feb 18 2026 - 12Z Thu Feb 19 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Kebede   
      
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Thu Feb 19 2026 - 12Z Fri Feb 20 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Kebede   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6J-MiGolbaM5mugp-eyVfEXSVfydaHqI8YGNS39qoGZk=   
   8AZtEY_36OPLviFKrrSeVX6N4Hbja9ELin93VtZwVlTpL8g$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6J-MiGolbaM5mugp-eyVfEXSVfydaHqI8YGNS39qoGZk=   
   8AZtEY_36OPLviFKrrSeVX6N4Hbja9ELin93VtZwk7ajmmw$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6J-MiGolbaM5mugp-eyVfEXSVfydaHqI8YGNS39qoGZk=   
   8AZtEY_36OPLviFKrrSeVX6N4Hbja9ELin93VtZwP99X90U$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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