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   Day 3 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0127 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026   
      
   Valid 191200Z - 201200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE   
   LOWER/MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Severe thunderstorms with potential to produce a few tornadoes and   
   damaging wind gusts are possible across parts of the middle   
   Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys Thursday afternoon into early   
   evening.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   Two shortwave troughs are expected to quickly lift   
   north-northeastward through the central Plains and into the Ohio   
   Valley region on Thursday. The initial perturbation will reach   
   Illinois/Indiana by early afternoon. The intensity of this feature   
   will remain modest with perhaps some gradual weakening in time. The   
   second trough will evolve in the lower Missouri Valley during the   
   evening and intensify as it approaches the lower Ohio Valley by   
   Friday morning. At the surface, a cyclone will deepen as it lifts   
   northeastward from eastern Kansas into the Great Lakes region. At   
   least partially modified Gulf moisture will advect northward ahead   
   of the surface cold front from the Upper Midwest into the southern   
   Plains.   
      
   ...Lower/middle Ohio Valley...   
   Ahead of the cold front, a prefrontal trough/pseudo dryline is   
   expected to be the focus for convective development during the   
   afternoon. The degree/quality of moisture return ahead of this   
   feature will be key in terms of the overall magnitude of the severe   
   threat. Current observations (Tuesday) from soundings depict a very   
   modest moist layer along the Gulf coast. A modest shortwave trough   
   on Tuesday night into Wednesday will lift northward too quickly for   
   more substantial moisture return. The surface pattern on Thursday   
   will be more robust, but deeper moisture may still not reach far   
   enough north given that mid 60s F dewpoints are only as far north as   
   the central Gulf currently. Guidance suggests mid to upper 50s F   
   dewpoints are most probable, which does seem reasonable. That said,   
   temperatures aloft will not be overly cold and lapse rates will not   
   be overly steep. This will lead to convection that may remain   
   somewhat low topped in nature. Despite limiting factors within the   
   environment, 40-50 kts of effective shear roughly perpendicular to   
   the boundary will favor discrete storms. Low-level flow will be   
   increasing with time as well. Supercells capable of few tornadoes,   
   damaging winds, and isolated large hail are possible during the   
   afternoon/evening.   
      
   ..Wendt.. 02/17/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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