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   ACUS01 KWNS 171632   
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   SPC AC 171631   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1031 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026   
      
   Valid 171630Z - 181200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE   
   CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the   
   West today through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are also   
   anticipated across the Upper Midwest late this afternoon and   
   tonight.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   Recent satellite imagery shows several disturbances across the   
   western CONUS, including a pair of low-amplitude shortwave troughs   
   within the belt of strong southwesterly flow extending from the   
   central Pacific into the central Plains and a deepening upper low   
   off the Pacific Northwest coast. Intense surface cyclogenesis is   
   anticipated ahead of the lead shortwave as it moves quickly   
   northeastward, with the resulting surface low forecast to move   
   across SD/NE, ending the period over southern MN. Evolution of this   
   surface low and parent shortwave, which will become increasingly   
   negatively tilted throughout the day and overnight, will result in   
   strong forcing for ascent from the Mid MO Valley into the Upper   
   Midwest this evening and overnight.   
      
   Farther west, the previously mentioned upper low is expected to drop   
   slowly southward as a strong jet (i.e. 100 kt at 500 mb) pivots   
   around its western and southern periphery. Very cold mid-level   
   temperatures and strong/persistent forcing for ascent will support   
   isolated thunderstorms along across much of the West coast   
   throughout the day and tonight.   
      
   ...Coastal California...   
   Limited buoyancy is expected to develop along the near coastal areas   
   of CA as very cold mid-level temperatures (i.e. -25 to -30 deg C at   
   500 mb) associated with the upper low continue to advect into the   
   region. This buoyancy coupled with the strong forcing for ascent   
   could result in some deeper, more persistent updrafts across the   
   region today, both within the primary frontal band and any more   
   bowing line segments that may follow it. Given the robust deep layer   
   flow across the region, any deeper, more persistent updrafts could   
   result in some stronger, convectively augmented gusts. Additionally,   
   there appears to be enough low-level curvature to support a brief   
   tornado or two within the immediate coastal regions. Highest   
   potential for either hazards currently appears to be after 00Z in   
   the San Luis Obispo/Santa Barbara county areas.   
      
   ...Upper Midwest...   
   Some low-level moisture return is anticipated across the region   
   ahead of the previously mentioned shortwave trough and associated   
   forcing for ascent. Even so, low-level moisture will still be   
   limited, with dewpoints likely remaining in the upper 40s to perhaps   
   low 50s. This is not expected to be enough moisture for surface   
   destabilization across most of the region, despite strong surface   
   heating/boundary-layer mixing and steepening low-level lapse rates   
   in vicinity of the surface low/front. The only exception is across   
   far southeast SD and far northeast NE where a high-based storm or   
   two cannot be completely ruled out. Any that does develop could   
   produce an strong gust or two, although coverage will likely remain   
   less than 10%.   
      
   Across the Upper Midwest, capping may tend to largely prevail during   
   the day, with elevated thunderstorms becoming more probable   
   east-northeastward of IA into the MN/WI throughout the evening and   
   overnight. Instability does not appear strong enough to support   
   severe hail with this elevated activity.   
      
   ..Mosier/Bunting.. 02/17/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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