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   FOUS30 KWBC 171555   
   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   1055 AM EST Tue Feb 17 2026   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 16Z Tue Feb 17 2026 - 12Z Wed Feb 18 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS   
   OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...   
      
   16z update:   
   Leading shortwave within the larger scale trough has dug into the   
   central California helping to concentrate the low level WAA   
   along/ahead of the cold front. The overall concentration has   
   brought total PWats up toward .75" while increasing orthogonal   
   onshore flow to the coastal ranges to support .33-.5" hourly rain   
   rates. The southward progression will continue to limit overall   
   totals to below 2.5" even within the terrain (or below freezing   
   level along the lower slopes of the Sierra Nevada), but as noted   
   below the antecedent upper soils are fairly saturated that=20   
   slightly above average run-off is expected. Still, any flooding=20   
   would likely be minor or localized and mostly affect urban settings   
   and/or recent burn scars, initially through central CA.   
      
   The broader pre-frontal WAA will intersect the Santa Lucia for a   
   longer duration; so while rates may reach up to .5" localized   
   totals at or above 2" are increasingly possible and more in range   
   of a typical weak AR with 400-500 kg/m/s IVT values. Through   
   evening, there is some hint of some increased southerly flow in the   
   surface to boundary layer intersecting the pre-frontal plume and   
   IVT values may reach 500+ kg/m/s, however, the intersection with   
   terrain will be a bit more oblique maintaining or slightly   
   reducing the deep layer moisture convergence driving the rainfall   
   rates (still generally about .3-.5"/hr mainly after 03-06z.=20   
      
   So all in all, there are no substantial changes to the Marginal   
   Risk of Excessive Rainfall from north of the Bay Area through   
   Southern California coast/coastal ranges.=20=20   
      
   Gallina   
      
      
   ~~~~Prior Discussion~~~~   
   A mid-level disturbance centered over the Pacific Northwest Coast   
   will shift south and east into California today. At the surface, a   
   cold front will propagate through the Great Basin and arrive in   
   the Intermountain West by Wednesday morning. Scattered showers and   
   thunderstorms are expected to spread south from the north/central   
   California Coast to SoCal this evening.   
      
   Instability will be modest, between 50-150 J/Kg MUCAPE, between   
   00z-12z tonight, which coincides with when the mid-level vort max will   
   be directly overhead. Precipitable water values in the 0.5-0.75"   
   range won't be very anomalous (1-2 stndv), however isolated pockets   
   of efficient rain rates around 1" are possible within areas of   
   higher instability and PWATs. Upslope enhancement along the Central   
   California and Transverse ranges could lead to higher totals in   
   those areas. Lower snow levels on the backside of Monday's cold   
   frontal passage will see most of the higher mountain peaks realize   
   higher QPF in the form of snow.   
      
   Antecedent conditions from Monday's rainfall will make soils and   
   burn scars susceptible to runoff today. Urban areas will continue   
   to be vulnerable. HREF neighborhood probabilities show a strong   
   signal for at least 1 inch within much of the current marginal risk   
   area.   
      
   Kebede   
      
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Wed Feb 18 2026 - 12Z Thu Feb 19 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Kebede   
      
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Thu Feb 19 2026 - 12Z Fri Feb 20 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Kebede   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!71310prAgFo1v6U0zoV_Vuda1DAiUSQ5S0uTJPrYHwLU=   
   fI62i5njpUpvi3Yjc3Yr2eloaoA2w43K1u_msSkuhuQymPk$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!71310prAgFo1v6U0zoV_Vuda1DAiUSQ5S0uTJPrYHwLU=   
   fI62i5njpUpvi3Yjc3Yr2eloaoA2w43K1u_msSkuBxv-0rQ$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!71310prAgFo1v6U0zoV_Vuda1DAiUSQ5S0uTJPrYHwLU=   
   fI62i5njpUpvi3Yjc3Yr2eloaoA2w43K1u_msSkur6jhd7s$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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