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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   ACUS01 KWNS 171257   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 171255   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0655 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026   
      
   Valid 171300Z - 181200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   The risk for severe storms appears low, but isolated thunderstorms   
   will be possible across parts of the West, and across the Upper   
   Midwest late this afternoon and tonight.   
      
   ...Western States/Coastal California...   
   A prominent upper-level trough will continue to settle   
   south-southeastward along the West Coast through tonight, with a   
   strong upper speed max nosing across central/southern California   
   late today into tonight. North of the upper jet, very cold   
   temperatures aloft will exist which will result in a few hundred   
   J/kg SBCAPE, mainly for northern/central coastal areas today. While   
   gusty winds and/or small hail could occur, organized severe storm   
   potential is currently expected to remain low.   
      
   ...Upper Midwest...   
   Consequential height falls will steadily occur regionally by late   
   afternoon into tonight as a lead shortwave trough emerges from the   
   northern/central High Plains. A related surface low will develop   
   generally eastward across South Dakota/northern Nebraska toward   
   Minnesota overnight. A moisture-limited warm sector, featuring   
   mostly 40s with a few lower 50s F surface dewpoints, will shift   
   north-northeastward toward the region in advance of an   
   eastward-accelerating cold front.   
      
   Surface heating/boundary-layer mixing will steepen low-level lapse   
   rates into afternoon in vicinity of the surface low/front, and while   
   capping may tend to largely prevail during the day, a few   
   thunderstorms could occur before sunset initially across the eastern   
   Dakotas and/or far eastern Nebraska. Some convectively enhanced wind   
   gusts are plausible given the steep lapse rates and strong   
   deep-tropospheric wind field. Elevated thunderstorms will otherwise   
   become more probable east-northeastward into evening and beyond   
   across the Upper Midwest. Instability does not appear strong enough   
   to support severe hail with this elevated activity.   
      
   ..Guyer/Grams.. 02/17/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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