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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
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   ACUS48 KWNS 170952   
   SWOD48   
   SPC AC 170950   
      
   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0350 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026   
      
   Valid 201200Z - 251200Z   
      
   ...DISCUSSION...   
   In general, the latest medium-range guidance indicates that an   
   initially notable surface cyclone over the upper Great Lakes region   
   at the outset of the period will undergo substantive weakening, as a   
   supporting short wave impulse becomes sheared and weakens to the   
   south of a blocking mid-level ridge centered over southern Hudson   
   Bay.  It appears that secondary cyclogenesis across and offshore of   
   the Mid Atlantic coast Friday through Friday night will be subdued,   
   with a trailing cold front stalling across the southern Atlantic   
   through Gulf coast vicinity into Saturday, near the southern   
   periphery of the seasonably strong westerlies.   
      
   Forcing for ascent associated with trailing short wave   
   perturbations, emerging from larger-scale mid-level troughing   
   progressing out of the West, may remain largely to the cool side of   
   the surface frontal zone.  However, further moistening along it   
   could support sufficient destabilization for vigorous, perhaps   
   upscale growing and training, thunderstorm development, which could   
   pose at least some risk for producing severe hail and wind.  While   
   severe thunderstorm probabilities are being maintained at less than   
   15 percent in this outlook, it is still possible that this could   
   change in later outlook updates for the Friday/Saturday time period.   
      
   Thereafter, amplifying mid/upper flow across the eastern   
   mid-latitude Pacific into North America through early next week   
   appears likely to include building large-scale ridging inland of the   
   Pacific coast through the Mississippi Valley.  Beneath the confluent   
   regime in the wake of digging downstream troughing, cold surface   
   ridging is forecast to build southward to the lee of the Rockies,   
   through much of the Gulf Basin.  Associated low-level drying and   
   stabilization probably will tend to limit convective potential   
   through the remainder of the period.   
      
   ..Kerr.. 02/17/2026   
      
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