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   ACUS03 KWNS 170832   
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   SPC AC 170831   
      
   Day 3 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0231 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026   
      
   Valid 191200Z - 201200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON   
   INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN   
   ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN INDIANA...WESTERN/NORTHERN KENTUCKY...AND   
   SOUTHWESTERN OHIO...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Severe thunderstorms with potential to produce a few tornadoes and   
   damaging wind gusts are possible across parts of the middle   
   Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys Thursday afternoon into early   
   evening.   
      
   ...Discussion...   
   Considerable spread persists within latest model output concerning   
   short wave developments within the evolving pattern across North   
   America through this period.  In general, though, guidance indicates   
   that larger-scale mid-level troughing will slowly begin to shift   
   inland of the Pacific coast Thursday through Thursday night, while   
   being maintained downstream across the Rockies, Great Plains and   
   Mississippi Valley, and slowly developing toward the lower Great   
   Lakes and Appalachians vicinity.  The center of a subtropical high   
   is likely to shift from the Gulf Basin into the Bahamas/Caribbean,   
   with its northern periphery maintaining an influence across parts of   
   the Southeast.   
      
   One or two short wave perturbations emerging from the Intermountain   
   West may be in the process of progressing into and across the   
   central Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley vicinity at the   
   outset of the period.  The lower amplitude lead perturbation may   
   continue into and across the Ohio Valley during the day, as the   
   stronger upstream perturbation pivots across the mid to lower   
   Missouri Valley toward the Great Lakes region.  This appears a bit   
   to the north, and at somewhat lower amplitudes, than what prior runs   
   of at least some model output has been indicating.  However, this is   
   still likely to be accompanied by a sub-1000 mb surface cyclone,   
   which may undergo one or two periods of additional deepening while   
   migrating northeast of the lower Missouri Valley toward the Great   
   Lakes region Thursday through Thursday night.   
      
   ...Middle Mississippi/Lower Ohio Valley...   
   Latest model output continues to indicate better low-level moisture   
   return (but still marginal for severe convective development) to   
   portions of the warm sector of the developing cyclone as it migrates   
   across and northeast of the lower Missouri Valley Thursday   
   afternoon.  It appears that this may include a corridor of mid 50s   
   to near 60F surface dew points advecting northeast and east of the   
   confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers.  However, it now   
   appears that much of this moistening may occur beneath relatively   
   warm mid/upper levels, associated with subsidence to the south of   
   the upper jet axis.   
      
   This is not reflected in the latest RRFS forecast soundings, which   
   indicate rather potent thermodynamic profiles evolving by Thursday   
   afternoon across the lower Ohio Valley vicinity, in terms of both   
   conditional and convective instability.  A general consensus of   
   other model output suggests the development of much more modest   
   CAPE.  This includes NAM forecast soundings, which depict CAPE at or   
   below 500 J/kg where the low-level moistening occurs, mostly due to   
   low equilibrium levels below the 500 mb level.  It remains unclear   
   if this environment will become supportive of convection capable of   
   producing lightning.   
      
   Even so, NAM forecast soundings still depict boundary-layer based   
   CAPE supportive of low-topped convection which could acquire   
   supercellular structure in the presence of strong cloud bearing   
   shear.  Aided by the evolution of sizable clockwise-curved low-level   
    hodographs beneath 30-50 kt southerly 850 mb flow, and a relatively   
   moist boundary-layer with steep lapse rates, a few tornadoes appear   
   possible, in addition to small to marginally severe hail.  The   
   evolution of a small organizing cluster may still not be out of the   
   question, which probably would be accompanied by better potential   
   for damaging surface gusts.   
      
   ..Kerr.. 02/17/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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