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   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
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   FOUS30 KWBC 170829   
   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   329 AM EST Tue Feb 17 2026   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 12Z Tue Feb 17 2026 - 12Z Wed Feb 18 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS   
   OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...   
      
   A mid-level disturbance centered over the Pacific Northwest Coast=20   
   will shift south and east into California today. At the surface, a   
   cold front will propagate through the Great Basin and arrive in=20   
   the Intermountain West by Wednesday morning. Scattered showers and   
   thunderstorms are expected to spread south from the north/central=20   
   California Coast to SoCal this evening.   
      
   Instability will be modest, between 50-150 J/Kg MUCAPE, between=20   
   00z-12z tonight, which coincides with when the mid-level vort max will   
   be directly overhead. Precipitable water values in the 0.5-0.75"=20   
   range won't be very anomalous (1-2 stndv), however isolated pockets   
   of efficient rain rates around 1" are possible within areas of=20   
   higher instability and PWATs. Upslope enhancement along the Central   
   California and Transverse ranges could lead to higher totals in=20   
   those areas. Lower snow levels on the backside of Monday's cold=20   
   frontal passage will see most of the higher mountain peaks realize=20   
   higher QPF in the form of snow.   
      
   Antecedent conditions from Monday's rainfall will make soils and=20   
   burn scars susceptible to runoff today. Urban areas will continue   
   to be vulnerable. HREF neighborhood probabilities show a strong   
   signal for at least 1 inch within much of the current marginal risk   
   area.   
      
   Kebede   
      
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Wed Feb 18 2026 - 12Z Thu Feb 19 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Kebede   
      
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Thu Feb 19 2026 - 12Z Fri Feb 20 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Kebede   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!89kfSMr-0S9UlYqv863uPro4GdAhfYvxWD5e1mJFVACL=   
   VI5WnYcbOEKixI71tZZNC-K2Gv5tMcEBs4eWtc-FyVITXb8$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!89kfSMr-0S9UlYqv863uPro4GdAhfYvxWD5e1mJFVACL=   
   VI5WnYcbOEKixI71tZZNC-K2Gv5tMcEBs4eWtc-Fm9W5VOQ$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!89kfSMr-0S9UlYqv863uPro4GdAhfYvxWD5e1mJFVACL=   
   VI5WnYcbOEKixI71tZZNC-K2Gv5tMcEBs4eWtc-Fy_pt85g$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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