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   ACUS02 KWNS 170550   
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   SPC AC 170549   
      
   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1149 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026   
      
   Valid 181200Z - 191200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Widely scattered areas of low probabilistic potential for   
   thunderstorm development may evolve across the U.S. Wednesday   
   through Wednesday night, but any storms that do form are expected to   
   remain generally weak.   
      
   ...Discussion...   
   Notable spread persists within the latest model output concerning   
   short wave (and related lower-level) developments within a cyclonic   
   regime evolving inland of the Pacific coast through the Mississippi   
   Valley by Wednesday.   
      
   In general, one initial perturbation and associated surface   
   troughing, pivoting through the Upper Midwest and adjacent Great   
   Lakes region by the beginning of this period, are still forecast to   
   undergo substantive weakening Wednesday through Wednesday night.  It   
   is possible that a residual area of lower/mid-tropospheric forcing   
   for ascent, coupled with limited moisture return, may maintain   
   sufficient strength to support continuing convective development   
   capable of producing lightning while spreading through the lower   
   Great Lakes vicinity into the day Wednesday.  This seems likely to   
   remain rooted above an initially stable boundary layer, with little   
   risk for severe weather before diminishing.   
      
   Upstream, another fairly significant short wave perturbation is   
   forecast to accelerate east-northeast of the southern Sierra Nevada,   
   as another digs toward the Oregon/northern California coast.   
   Beneath strong mid-level cooling, models indicate that   
   boundary-layer warming will probably contribute to weak   
   destabilization supportive of convective development across the   
   eastern Great Basin through the mountains of Colorado and Wyoming   
   during the day.  It doesn't seem entirely out of the question that   
   some of this activity may become capable of producing lightning,   
   particularly where surface temperatures are able to warm above   
   freezing.  However, this probably will remain very sparse in   
   coverage.  Otherwise, thunderstorm probabilities marginally   
   sufficient for a categorical thunderstorm area are likely to linger   
   near Pacific coastal areas, mainly from Oregon into and just south   
   of San Francisco Bay.   
      
   It does still appear that the short wave trough emerging from the   
   West will support notable cyclogenesis from the lee of the Colorado   
   Rockies into the central Great Plains late Wednesday through   
   Wednesday night.  However, low-level flow, above the boundary-layer,   
   across and east of the southern Great Plains is forecast to maintain   
   a pronounced westerly component through the period.  Modest inland   
   moisture return off a gradually modifying Gulf boundary layer   
   appears likely to remain focused east of the lower Mississippi   
   Valley, into the Southeast, around the western periphery of   
   low-level ridging centered over the southern mid- to subtropical   
   latitudes of the western Atlantic.  It is possible that a weak   
   mid/upper impulse rapidly progressing eastward across parts of the   
   Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians, and/or low-level warm   
   advection farther west into the vicinity of the confluence of the   
   Mississippi and Ohio Rivers, could support weak thunderstorm   
   development Wednesday night.  But, probabilities appear near or   
   below the minimum threshold for a categorical thunder area at the   
   present time.   
      
   ..Kerr.. 02/17/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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