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   ACUS01 KWNS 170535   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 170534   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1134 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026   
      
   Valid 171200Z - 181200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Thunderstorms are possible across Pacific coastal areas much of   
   California Tuesday, and across parts of the mid Missouri Valley into   
   the Upper Midwest late. The risk for severe storms appears low.   
      
   ...Pacific Coastal States...   
   An upper low will drop south toward the coastal Pacific Northwest   
   today as a strong upper speed max noses into central CA by 00Z. This   
   feature will translate southward overnight and into southern CA by   
   12Z Wed. North of the upper jet, very cold temperatures aloft will   
   exist which will result in a few hundred J/kg SBCAPE despite cool   
   surface conditions. While favorable shear profiles will develop   
   southward through the central valleys, surface temperatures will   
   largely be in the 40s to perhaps lower 50s F, with generally limited   
   heating. Very small hail cannot be ruled out in the strongest   
   convection given long hodographs and such cold temperatures aloft,   
   but severe storms are not currently forecast.   
      
   ...Mid MO Valley / Upper Midwest...   
   A leading shortwave trough will move into the Plains today, with a   
   strong speed max aloft from NM into KS by 00Z. The strongest cooling   
   aloft and lift will occur from NE into the Dakotas, and into western   
   MN/IA be evening. Low pressure will develop into SD during the   
   afternoon, with a cold front pushing toward the mid MO Valley. While   
   surface heating as well as boundary-layer mixing will steepen   
   low-level lapse rates in the veered flow, it appears capping may   
   hold atop the plume of 40s F dewpoints ahead of the wind shift. An   
   isolated thunderstorm cannot totally be ruled out through 00Z, but a   
   greater chance will exist as minimal elevated instability develops   
   near the nose of the 850 mb jet with lift focused across MN and WI.   
   Instability does not appear strong enough to support severe hail   
   with this elevated activity.   
      
   ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 02/17/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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