TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 169611.weather@1:2320/105 2dfb8859   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   FOUS30 KWBC 170052   
   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   752 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 01Z Tue Feb 17 2026 - 12Z Tue Feb 17 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS=20   
   OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...   
      
   The heaviest rainfall has generally come to an end across the   
   central and southern CA coast resulting in a lowered threat of   
   additional flash flooding through the overnight. However, the   
   post-frontal environment will support upwards of 500 j/kg of CAPE,   
   which combined with additional shortwave energy moving across,=20   
   will likely result in scattered convective showers persisting.=20   
   These showers will be capable of briefly heavy rates, but they=20   
   should be quick moving, reducing the duration of these higher=20   
   rates. A quick 0.25" of rain is likely within any heavier showers,=20   
   but total additional rainfall should stay below 1" across most=20   
   areas (locally up towards 1.5" in the most favored upslope areas).=20   
   Localized additional flood impacts are possible, but the coverage=20   
   and magnitude of impacts should be less than what occurred earlier=20   
   today. Thus we were able to lower the ERO risk to the Marginal=20   
   level.   
      
   Chenard   
      
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Tue Feb 17 2026 - 12Z Wed Feb 18 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS   
   OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...   
      
   20Z Update...   
   Generally no changes to the synoptic scale setup for this period as   
   the 12Z guidance agrees in allowing for additional Pacific   
   shortwave energy and moisture transport to arrive across much of   
   CA. By midday Tuesday, this new energy along with a cold front   
   will drive a westerly low-level jet of as much as 40 to 50+ kts   
   into the coastal ranges of central CA, including the Bay Area, with   
   the front and onshore flow then settling south toward the   
   Transverse Range by Tuesday night. IVT magnitudes are forecast to   
   rise as high as 300 to 500 kg/m/s which coupled with warm advection   
   and upslope flow into the terrain should foster some scattered   
   instances of rainfall rates at least approaching a 0.50"/hour.   
   Generally 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected for the lower   
   elevations with 2 to 4 inches possible for the higher terrain and   
   especially down across the Transverse Range. Given increasingly   
   moist/wet antecedent conditions in the wake of the day 1 storm   
   system impacting the region, these additional rains may foster at   
   least some runoff concerns, with potential for renewed areas of   
   urban flooding and at least an isolated flash flood threat near   
   more sensitive sloped terrain and especially any burn scar areas.   
   The Marginal Risk area was expanded just a bit, especially with   
   respect to the Bay Area, but otherwise changes to continuity are   
   minimal.   
      
   Orrison   
      
   ~~~~Prior Discussion~~~~   
   Another mid-level trough dives south along the West Coast on   
   Tuesday, sending another round of showers and isolated   
   thunderstorms into the central and southern California Coast.   
   Ingredients will be less impressive on Tuesday than today, thus a   
   marginal risk from the Santa Cruz Mountains down through the San   
   Diego metro will suffice. Snow levels will also be lower so   
   upslope portions of the Transverse Ranges will likely see snow   
   where they see rain today. Saturated soils from antecedent rainfall   
   will be an important factor in any isolated flash flooding that   
   occurs within the marginal risk area.   
      
   Kebede   
      
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Wed Feb 18 2026 - 12Z Thu Feb 19 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Orrison   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5fIB6bWc-_Mg7i00fRUTRUOEtgECwVa170b-EWbG7nj0=   
   7ByV-4gMRHcK1c_GFkTPvH97O57y8MCnYwQlJ3B05vRNcEM$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5fIB6bWc-_Mg7i00fRUTRUOEtgECwVa170b-EWbG7nj0=   
   7ByV-4gMRHcK1c_GFkTPvH97O57y8MCnYwQlJ3B0N3y6Pmo$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5fIB6bWc-_Mg7i00fRUTRUOEtgECwVa170b-EWbG7nj0=   
   7ByV-4gMRHcK1c_GFkTPvH97O57y8MCnYwQlJ3B0byWKYSo$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
   To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to   
   https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email   
   Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.   
      
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)   
   SEEN-BY: 1/19 100 16/0 19/37 80/1 103/705 104/119 105/81 106/201 114/10   
   SEEN-BY: 120/302 123/130 128/187 129/14 142/104 153/7715 154/10 30   
   SEEN-BY: 154/50 110 700 203/0 218/700 220/20 90 221/1 6 226/18 20   
   SEEN-BY: 226/30 44 50 227/114 229/110 134 206 300 307 317 400 426   
   SEEN-BY: 229/428 470 664 700 705 240/1120 5832 266/512 280/5003 291/111   
   SEEN-BY: 301/1 113 320/119 219 319 2119 322/757 762 326/101 335/364   
   SEEN-BY: 341/66 342/200 396/45 423/81 460/58 633/280 712/848 902/26   
   SEEN-BY: 2320/0 105 304 3634/12 5020/400 1042 5075/35   
   PATH: 2320/105 154/10 301/1 221/1 320/219 229/426