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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   ACUS01 KWNS 161932   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 161931   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0131 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026   
      
   Valid 162000Z - 171200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL   
   PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Strong thunderstorms may impact the coastal areas of central and   
   southern California today.  These storms may produce locally   
   damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado.   
      
   ...20z Update...   
   No changes were made to the D1 Convective Outlook. Bands of   
   thunderstorm activity continue to move onshore across portions of   
   the southern California coast, with potential for gusty winds and   
   brief tornado. The threat will gradually shift southward through the   
   afternoon/evening with the gradual movement inland of the   
   upper-level wave. See previous discussion for more information.   
      
   ..Thornton.. 02/16/2026   
      
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026/   
      
   ...Coastal Central and Southern CA...   
   Recent satellite imagery continues to show a strong shortwave trough   
   off the southern CA coast. Robust low-level wind fields precede this   
   shortwave, with recent mesoanalysis and KVBX VAD profiles showing   
   southerly winds around 40 to 50 kt at 1 km over Santa Barbara and   
   San Luis Obispo counties. Despite very meager buoyancy, regional   
   radar imagery does show some deeper convective elements moving   
   eastward/northeastward from along the Santa Barbara county coast to   
   just west of the northern Channel Islands. Strong forcing for ascent   
   will continue across the region throughout the day, although a   
   southward shift is anticipated over the next few hours as a strong   
   mid-level jet streak approaches the coast of far southern CA. This   
   stronger forcing may result in a southward extension of the ongoing   
   band, or the development of a separate band farther south.   
      
   Given the intense wind fields in place over the region, any deeper   
   more sustained convection could result in localized strong gusts and   
   perhaps even a brief tornado. Current trends suggest this severe   
   potential will gradually shift southward across southern CA   
   throughout the day. However, this threat should be limited/very   
   isolated given the scant buoyancy in place and resulting expectation   
   that any deeper convection should be brief and too shallow to   
   produce lightning.   
      
   ...Coastal southwest OR and northern CA...   
   An upper trough will dive southward just off the Pacific Northwest   
   tonight, with the left-exit region of the upper jet pushing into   
   northern CA early Tuesday morning.  While surface temperatures will   
   be cool (in the 40s F) in the wake of the earlier wave, this   
   secondary trough will bring cold temperatures aloft with and 500 mb   
   temperatures to around -35 C. As such, 100-200 J/kg of SBCAPE will   
   exist along the immediate coast, and a few instances of low-topped   
   convection may yield locally strong wind gusts as the cold front   
   moves through.   
      
   $$   
      
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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