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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   ACUS03 KWNS 161931   
   SWODY3   
   SPC AC 161930   
      
   Day 3 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0130 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026   
      
   Valid 181200Z - 191200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Wednesday.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   A deep mid/upper-level trough is expected to persist over the   
   western CONUS on Wednesday, as multiple embedded shortwaves move   
   through the large-scale trough through the period. Low-topped   
   convection will be possible across southern CA early in the period,   
   with multiple rounds of weak convection possible farther north from   
   the Pacific Northwest to central CA coast. Farther east, a   
   negative-tilt shortwave trough will move across parts of the Upper   
   Midwest/Great Lakes, as multiple low-amplitude vorticity maxima   
   eject eastward toward the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast.   
      
   ...MI into the Lower Great Lakes region...   
   Generally weak elevated convection may spread from lower MI into   
   parts of the Lower Great Lakes through the day, in association with   
   an ejecting midlevel vorticity maximum. Some guidance (such as the   
   ECMWF/GFS) depicts modest surface-based destabilization in the wake   
   of this elevated convection, within a favorably sheared environment.   
   However, this occurs within an otherwise drying environment (with PW   
   falling near/below 0.5 inches), with generally limited low-level   
   ascent. The signal for robust deeper convection is currently very   
   limited, but trends will continue to be monitored regarding the   
   potential for any vigorous surface-based development.   
      
   ...Northern Mid-South region into the Ohio Valley...   
   In response to a mid/upper-level shortwave ejecting from the western   
   trough, a surface cyclone is forecast to deepen across the central   
   High Plains during the day, before moving eastward across KS   
   Wednesday night. Guidance varies regarding the magnitude of   
   low-level moisture return within the warm-sector of this cyclone   
   prior to the end of the period. However, MUCAPE may become   
   sufficient for development of elevated thunderstorms late in the   
   period from parts of northern AR/southern MO into much of KY/TN and   
   adjacent Ohio Valley. Strong deep-layer flow would conditionally   
   support some storm organization, but development of sufficient   
   elevated buoyancy for an organized-severe threat remains uncertain.   
      
   ..Dean.. 02/16/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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