TZUTC: 0000   
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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
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   AWUS01 KWNH 161930   
   FFGMPD   
   CAZ000-170130-   
      
   Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0021   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   228 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026   
      
   Areas affected...Southern California...   
      
   Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible   
      
   Valid 161930Z - 170130Z   
      
   SUMMARY...Progressive cold front with strong pre-frontal southerly   
   moisture flux will continue to shift eastward into the eastern   
   Transverse and Peninsular Ranges through this evening.  Less   
   orthogonal ascent along terrain will reduce rainfall totals but   
   intense sub-hourly totals up to 1" that may cause urban flooding   
   and issues in and downstream of recent burn scars.   
      
   DISCUSSION...RADAR and GOES-W visible imagery show a narrow band   
   of intense showers/weak convective cores exiting Ventura county   
   into S Los Angeles county extending southward through the eastern   
   Channel Islands and starting to approach the southward turn of the   
   coast across Orange and San Diego counties.  Very strong moisture   
   flux of 40-50kts of 925-850mb flow and steadily increasing   
   moisture per CIRA LPW nearing .75" in that layer. Veering post   
   frontal flow continues to be stark, with  directional convergence   
   remains between 75-90 degrees.  Given the strength over 30kts (up   
   to 50kts), it will continue to result in strong moisture flux for   
   the convective elements supporting hourly rates of .75-1".  This   
   will continue what has been  have observed moving through   
   southward facing terrain of the Transverse Range including the   
   Santa Monica Range, where totals of 2-3+" have been observed   
   resulting in localized flash flooding.   
      
   The strength of flow even below 850mb will continue to intersect   
   the San Gabriel and San Bernardino Ranges lower to mid slopes with   
   similar rates near .75-1"/hr though highest peaks will start   
   converting over to moderate/heavy snowfall.  However, with   
   reducing southerly fetch, the Peninsular Ranges will see a quick   
   pick up, but with less orthogonal convergence/orographic ascent   
   will also see diminishing rates and therefore totals between   
   22-00z tonight.  The lack of moisture flux off the California   
   Bight will also reduce the effective ascent through the TROWAL   
   further back west across the central Transverse Ranges where   
   lighter rain will continue to slowly add to the totals through 00z   
   as well.  With the loss of orographic ascent/convergence and   
   deeper moisture availability, rates will reduce but increased   
   westerly flow and steepening lapse rates aloft before the main   
   cold front will allow for a few rounds of scattered upslope   
   showers with .1-.25"/hr rates/totals adding to the initial   
   mainline.  Still, the overall risk for flash flooding will be   
   limited to urban and recent burn scars east and South of the LA   
   Basin.=20   
      
   Gallina   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=   
   DZ3fjg!_T2sFFPP0svERanV2yHB5IoA9mN_NCu8DjDbOL9-ENK0iN6I0_prGm9oGnmsdshK2Oz6=   
   ETz3Y0zf0H5_pg1kbUamKeY$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...LOX...SGX...   
      
   ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...   
      
   LAT...LON   34701850 34251725 33811664 32841626 32471628=20   
               32451709 32971743 33471782 33621834 33831850=20   
               33981871 34221933 34601910=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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