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   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   227 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 16Z Mon Feb 16 2026 - 12Z Tue Feb 17 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF   
   CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...   
      
   16Z Update...   
   Newer 12z CAM suite and rapid refresh guidance continues to be on track   
   with generally timing of the cold front as it progresses eastward across   
   Big Sur through the California Bight later this afternoon. Recent satellite=   
   /RADAR   
   trends show slightly stronger low level moisture flux given 925mb backed   
   SSEly inflow per VWP to over 40kts compared to initial guidance and   
   so recent HRRR/ARW have picked up on the potential for slightly higher   
   rates with a few pre-frontal narrow updraft cells capable of up to 1"/hr   
   rates along the Santa Barbara/SLO coastal region. This will shift onshore   
   and maintain a slight uptick in totals, though most areas will see   
   0.5"/hr with 2-5" totals (highest values in the favored southern facing   
   terrain of the Transverse Ranges) helping to further solidify the Slight   
   Risk coverage potential. The intensity of the rates intersecting with   
   urban/hard ground conditions will see an uptick of run-off, but shorter   
   duration should limit the overall coverage and magnitude that the risk   
   category continues to look solid. Minor adjustments to the upwind and   
   downstream edges were made, but fundamentally the risk areas/categories   
   remain the same.   
      
   Gallina   
      
   ~~~~Prior Discussion~~~~   
   A mid to upper-level trough will propagate into the West Coast,   
   while a surface wave does the same this afternoon. Showers and   
   scattered to isolated thunderstorms will spread south from the   
   central California coast this morning down to SoCal tonight. The   
   most impactful rainfall will likely occur between late morning and   
   early evening. A combination of favorable upper and LLJ dynamics   
   (120+ kts upper, 40-50 kts 850 mb respectively) within a   
   relatively moist (0.75-1" PWATs representing the 90th percentile)   
   and an unstable environment (100-300 J/Kg MLCAPE) will likely   
   produce efficient rain rates this afternoon, especially over parts   
   of the Central CA Coast down through the San Rafael Mountains and   
   northern Los Angeles metro.   
      
   HREF neighborhood probabilities indicate over a 25% chance of   
   exceeding 2" in 24 hours by Tuesday morning across much of the   
   aforementioned areas, with some embedded signals for 5"+ within   
   upslope areas of the Transverse Ranges and Santa Lucia Range. Burn   
   scars, urbanized and upslope areas will be especially susceptible   
   to runoff. Progressive storm motion will mitigate flash flood   
   risk.   
      
   Kebede   
      
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Tue Feb 17 2026 - 12Z Wed Feb 18 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS   
   OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...   
      
   20Z Update...   
   Generally no changes to the synoptic scale setup for this period as   
   the 12Z guidance agrees in allowing for additional Pacific   
   shortwave energy and moisture transport to arrive across much of   
   CA. By midday Tuesday, this new energy along with a cold front=20   
   will drive a westerly low-level jet of as much as 40 to 50+ kts=20   
   into the coastal ranges of central CA, including the Bay Area, with   
   the front and onshore flow then settling south toward the   
   Transverse Range by Tuesday night. IVT magnitudes are forecast to   
   rise as high as 300 to 500 kg/m/s which coupled with warm advection   
   and upslope flow into the terrain should foster some scattered   
   instances of rainfall rates at least approaching a 0.50"/hour.   
   Generally 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected for the lower   
   elevations with 2 to 4 inches possible for the higher terrain and   
   especially down across the Transverse Range. Given increasingly   
   moist/wet antecedent conditions in the wake of the day 1 storm   
   system impacting the region, these additional rains may foster at   
   least some runoff concerns, with potential for renewed areas of   
   urban flooding and at least an isolated flash flood threat near   
   more sensitive sloped terrain and especially any burn scar areas.   
   The Marginal Risk area was expanded just a bit, especially with=20   
   respect to the Bay Area, but otherwise changes to continuity are   
   minimal.   
      
   Orrison   
      
   ~~~~Prior Discussion~~~~   
   Another mid-level trough dives south along the West Coast on   
   Tuesday, sending another round of showers and isolated   
   thunderstorms into the central and southern California Coast.   
   Ingredients will be less impressive on Tuesday than today, thus a   
   marginal risk from the Santa Cruz Mountains down through the San   
   Diego metro will suffice. Snow levels will also be lower so   
   upslope portions of the Transverse Ranges will likely see snow   
   where they see rain today. Saturated soils from antecedent rainfall   
   will be an important factor in any isolated flash flooding that   
   occurs within the marginal risk area.   
      
   Kebede   
      
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Wed Feb 18 2026 - 12Z Thu Feb 19 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Orrison   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6jGkb6F3BstpEZ0kcSdP23FgfAupDkY6-d-bHZWWNrS_=   
   wTOmZav3lkqq3vS2yd91tbRPaKIuQxnLszZ3TUA4B1-1nmo$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6jGkb6F3BstpEZ0kcSdP23FgfAupDkY6-d-bHZWWNrS_=   
   wTOmZav3lkqq3vS2yd91tbRPaKIuQxnLszZ3TUA4mbnB1gw$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6jGkb6F3BstpEZ0kcSdP23FgfAupDkY6-d-bHZWWNrS_=   
   wTOmZav3lkqq3vS2yd91tbRPaKIuQxnLszZ3TUA4x28pY_8$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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