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   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1130 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026   
      
   Valid 171200Z - 181200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Thunderstorms are possible across Pacific coastal areas and the   
   Central Valley of California Tuesday into Tuesday night, as well as   
   across parts of the mid Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest Tuesday   
   night.  However, the risk for severe storms currently appears low.   
      
   ...California...   
   In the wake of a mid/upper-level shortwave trough ejecting across   
   the Great Basin/Four Corners region, another strong trough will dig   
   southeastward along the Pacific Coast on Tuesday, as a powerful   
   mid/upper-level jet begins to impinge upon the California coast.   
   Ascent attendant to the trough/jet and cold temperatures aloft will   
   support low-topped convection along much of the California coast,   
   and also within parts of the interior valleys. The strongest   
   low/midlevel flow will move over the central/northern CA coast and   
   valleys during the day and evening, and over the southern CA coastal   
   region later Tuesday night. Gusty winds and small hail will be   
   possible with low-topped convection across these regions. At this   
   time, it appears that convection will be quite shallow, which is   
   expected to limit the organized severe threat. However, trends will   
   continue to be monitored regarding potential for a low-probability   
   wind and brief-tornado threat associated with this strong system.   
      
   ...Missouri Valley/Midwest...   
   The mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially near the eastern   
   Great Basin and Four Corners region will eject rapidly northeastward   
   and take on a negative tilt on Tuesday, reaching the   
   central/northern Plains by late afternoon into the evening, and the   
   Upper Midwest/Great Lakes by early Wednesday morning. In response to   
   this shortwave trough, a deep surface low will consolidate across   
   the northern High Plains, and then move across the Dakotas. A   
   trailing cold front will move across parts of the Great Plains.   
      
   Low-level moisture return along/ahead of the front is expected to   
   remain quite limited, but strong ascent and modest moistening above   
   the surface could support elevated convection from very late   
   afternoon into Tuesday night across parts of the MO Valley and Upper   
   Midwest. The signal for robust convection is currently muted, with   
   the general thunderstorm area reflecting a broad region of low but   
   nonzero potential. With strong low/midlevel flow and robust diurnal   
   heating/mixing expected across the warm sector, the environment will   
   be conditionally favorable for strong to locally severe gusts, if   
   deep convection can be sustained.   
      
   ..Dean.. 02/16/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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