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   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   1052 AM EST Mon Feb 16 2026   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 12Z Mon Feb 16 2026 - 12Z Tue Feb 17 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF   
   CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...   
      
   16z update:   
   Newer 12z CAM suite and rapid refresh guidance continues to be on   
   track with generally timing of the cold front as it progresses   
   eastward across Big Sur through the California Bight later this   
   afternoon. Recent satellite/RADAR trends show slightly stronger low   
   level moisture flux given 925mb backed SSEly inflow per VWP to over   
   40kts compared to initial guidance and so recent HRRR/ARW have   
   picked up on the potential for slightly higher rates with a few   
   pre-frontal narrow updraft cells capable of up to 1"/hr rates along   
   the Santa Barbara/SLO coastal region. This will shift onshore and   
   maintain a slight uptick in totals, though most areas will see   
   .5"/hr with 2-5" totals (highest values in the favored southern   
   facing terrain of the Transverse Ranges) helping to further   
   solidify the Slight Risk coverage potential. The intensity of the   
   rates intersecting with urban/hard ground conditions will see an   
   uptick of run-off, but shorter duration should limit the overall   
   coverage and magnitude that the risk category continues to look   
   solid. Minor adjustments to the upwind and downstream edges were=20   
   made, but fundamentally the risk areas/categories remain the same.   
      
   Gallina   
      
   ~~~~Prior Discussion~~~~   
   A mid to upper-level trough will propagate into the West Coast,   
   while a surface wave does the same this afternoon. Showers and   
   scattered to isolated thunderstorms will spread south from the   
   central California coast this morning down to SoCal tonight. The   
   most impactful rainfall will likely occur between late morning and   
   early evening. A combination of favorable upper and LLJ dynamics   
   (120+ kts upper, 40-50 kts 850 mb respectively) within a   
   relatively moist (0.75-1" PWATs representing the 90th percentile)   
   and an unstable environment (100-300 J/Kg MLCAPE) will likely   
   produce efficient rain rates this afternoon, especially over parts   
   of the Central CA Coast down through the San Rafael Mountains and   
   northern Los Angeles metro.   
      
   HREF neighborhood probabilities indicate over a 25% chance of   
   exceeding 2" in 24 hours by Tuesday morning across much of the   
   aforementioned areas, with some embedded signals for 5"+ within   
   upslope areas of the Transverse Ranges and Santa Lucia Range. Burn   
   scars, urbanized and upslope areas will be especially susceptible   
   to runoff. Progressive storm motion will mitigate flash flood   
   risk.   
      
   Kebede   
      
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Tue Feb 17 2026 - 12Z Wed Feb 18 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS   
   OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...   
      
   Another mid-level trough dives south along the West Coast on   
   Tuesday, sending another round of showers and isolated   
   thunderstorms into the central and southern California Coast.   
   Ingredients will be less impressive on Tuesday than today, thus a   
   marginal risk from the Santa Cruz Mountains down through the San   
   Diego metro will suffice. Snow levels will also be lower so   
   upslope portions of the Transverse Ranges will likely see snow   
   where they see rain today. Saturated soils from antecedent rainfall   
   will be an important factor in any isolated flash flooding that   
   occurs within the marginal risk area.   
      
   Kebede   
      
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Wed Feb 18 2026 - 12Z Thu Feb 19 2026   
      
   ...THE PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS   
   LESS THAN 5 PERCENT...   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6X6vklxfd86-CueRz5JeiTbJZ3fv-l_qIBgz53sxXhQN=   
   uLCiRMZtTSrATUNkssOUhrEiaLaU-cmZBf7eKXyAN5Hpx2g$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6X6vklxfd86-CueRz5JeiTbJZ3fv-l_qIBgz53sxXhQN=   
   uLCiRMZtTSrATUNkssOUhrEiaLaU-cmZBf7eKXyAYDCFCqI$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6X6vklxfd86-CueRz5JeiTbJZ3fv-l_qIBgz53sxXhQN=   
   uLCiRMZtTSrATUNkssOUhrEiaLaU-cmZBf7eKXyAsn9dVs8$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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