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   354    
   AXNT20 KNHC 161110 RRA   
   TWDAT    
      
   Tropical Weather Discussion   
   NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL   
   1215 UTC Mon Feb 16 2026   
      
   Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America   
   Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South   
   America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the   
   Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite   
   imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.   
      
   Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC.   
      
   ...SPECIAL FEATURE...   
      
   Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front is just inland the    
   southeastern coast of the U.S. Ahead of it, southerly winds have    
   increased to 25 to 35 kt in a tightening pressure gradient over a a    
   portion of the waters east of northern Florida along with seas of 8    
   to 11 ft. These winds are primarily north of 29N and between 75W and    
   77W. They will spread eastward during the morning. The cold front    
   will reach from near 31N74W to the NW Bahamas and to west-central    
   Cuba by early this afternoon, at which time these winds are expected    
   to shift north of 31N.   
      
   Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website:   
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml  for more details.   
      
   ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...   
      
   The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 09N13W and   
   extends southwestward to 03N22W, where latest scatterometer data    
   indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to inland Brazil at    
   02S47W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is   
   within 120 nm south of the trough between 16W-20W and within 60 nm    
   north of the trough between 17W-20W.   
      
   ...GULF OF AMERICA...   
      
   A cold front extends from is analyzed from north-central Florida    
   southwestward to 25N88W to the central Bay of Campeche. Overnight   
   scatterometer satellite data shows fresh west to northwest winds    
   behind the front to near 90W, and gentle to moderate north to    
   northeast winds are west of 90W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft with the winds    
   behind the front, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere north of 25N east of 94W    
   and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere, except for lower seas of 2 to 4 ft in the    
   far northwest Gulf and in the Bay of Campeche.   
      
   For the forecast, the cold front will exit the basin this    
   afternoon. Winds over the NE Gulf will gradually diminish this    
   morning as high pressure in the wake of the front begins to slide    
   eastward across the area. Winds will become gentle to moderate    
   along with slight to moderate seas beginning this afternoon and    
   continuing into early Tue before southerly moderate to fresh winds   
   develop in the western Gulf. These winds will expand eastward in    
   coverage through Fri as low pressure, with an attendant cold front   
   move through central Texas.    
      
   ...CARIBBEAN SEA...    
      
   A frontal remnant trough extends across Puerto Rico southwestward   
   into the east-central Caribbean along 68W. Fresh northeast to east    
   winds prevail north of about 15N, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Fresh   
   to strong winds continue to pulse near the coast of Colombia to 15N,    
   with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Elsewhere across the basin, a 1034 mb high    
   pressure centered between Bermuda and the Bahamas is supporting    
   moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas east of 80W, and gentle    
   to moderate southeast winds in the the northwestern part of the basin.   
      
   For the forecast, pulsing strong northeast winds will prevail    
   near the coast of Colombia through the forecast period. Moderate    
   to rough seas are expected with these winds. Light to gentle winds   
   over the NW Caribbean will strengthen by the end of the week.    
   Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail.   
      
   ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...   
      
   A Gale Warning is in effect for portions of the northwest waters    
   for this morning. Please refer to the Special Feature section    
   above for more details.   
      
   A cold front is analyzed from the north-central Atlantic through    
   31N41W to 23N49W, then becomes stationary to 19N63W and a frontal    
   remnant trough to Puerto Rico. Moderate to fresh north to northeast    
   winds as seen in overnight scatterometer satellite data passes are    
   north and northwest of the front to near 72W. Anticyclonic light to    
   gentle winds are north of 24N between of 51W and 57W in response to    
   a 1023 mb high center near 32N61W and a 1024 mb high center that is    
   near 33N53W. North of 25N and west of 72W, southerly winds are fresh    
   to near gale outside the gale-force winds as described above under    
   Special Features. Seas are 6 to 8 ft within these winds, except 3 ft    
   or less in the lee of the central Bahamas. Light to gentle winds and    
   3 to 5 ft seas are elsewhere, except for higher seas of 5 to 7 ft    
   north of 18N between 46W and 52W, and seas of 7 to 9 ft north of 27N    
   between 37W and 46W with fresh to strong south winds ahead of a cold front.   
      
   East of the cold front to 35W and north f 26N, fresh south to    
   southwest winds prevail along with seas of 7 to 9 ft. East of 35W    
   and N of 10N, fresh to strong trades and rough seas prevail due to   
   an enhanced pressure difference between a 1034 mb high near    
   36N14W and lower pressures in the deep tropics. Moderate to fresh    
   trades and moderate seas are elsewhere south of 20N to the Lesser Antilles.   
      
   For the forecast west of 55W outside of the Gale Warning area,    
   low pressure intensifying offshore the Carolinas will pull a cold   
   front across the offshore waters of northern Florida today.    
   Scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front, with a    
   squall line are north of 28N between 74W and 77W. This activity    
   will continue eastward into the afternoon. The cold front will    
   reach from near 31N74W to the NW Bahamas and to west-central Cuba    
   by early this afternoon, from near 31N69W to the central Bahamas    
   and to central Cuba tonight, then from near 31N58W to 24N65W and    
   stationary to South Florida Tue. The cold front portion will move    
   east of 55W late Tue while the stationary portion weakens, with    
   frontal remnants lifting back N as a warm front Wed. An expanding    
   areas of fresh to strong southerly winds and building seas will    
   precede the front today. Fresh to strong winds northerly winds and    
   building seas will follow the front through late tonight. Seas may    
   possibly reach 14 ft in the far northern forecast waters Tue, then    
   shift to the far northeast part of the area Wed before moving east    
   of 55W Wed night. The fresh to strong winds will diminish on Tue.    
   Rough seas will linger elsewhere east of 60W through Thu. Mariners    
   are urged to stay up to date with the latest forecasts.    
      
   $$   
   Aguirre   
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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