TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 169589.weather@1:2320/105 2dfae867   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS11 KWNS 161330   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 161329=20   
   CAZ000-161530-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 0089   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0729 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026   
      
   Areas affected...Portions of the southern California Coast   
      
   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20   
      
   Valid 161329Z - 161530Z   
      
   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent   
      
   SUMMARY...Weak convective showers may pose a threat for waterspouts   
   and damaging winds along portions of the southern California coast   
   through mid-morning.   
      
   DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery from KVBX shows shallow convective   
   cells moving northward ahead of an eastward migrating convective   
   band within a narrow plume of warm air advection. Several of these   
   cells show weak rotation per velocity imagery, and while too shallow   
   for substantial lightning production, may be capable of brief/weak   
   waterspouts given nearly 450 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH sampled by the nearby   
   KVBX VWP. These cells will gradually approach the coastline of   
   western Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties in the next few   
   hours and may pose a risk of waterspouts and damaging winds along   
   the shore. This threat is expected to remain fairly spatially   
   limited to coastal areas given very limited buoyancy further inland,   
   at least for the next few hours before cold temperatures aloft   
   spread east. Regardless, the spatial/temporal threat will likely   
   remain sufficiently limited to preclude watch issuance.   
      
   ..Moore/Smith.. 02/16/2026   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!6V-ZU99WSaPClTi2SXNIpkLbW2pkwrWqj6qIpImoJRsnVruOsCIsQ4OClc8Sl86D1qlEp5CAQ=   
   EeiVZFl4ODJ_ihL2a0$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...LOX...   
      
   LAT...LON   34412047 34542066 34642067 34862064 35062066 35182085   
               35292097 35442104 35622103 35692089 35622074 35212042   
               34862025 34662010 34472005 34422016 34412047=20   
      
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
   To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to   
   https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email   
   Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.   
      
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)   
   SEEN-BY: 1/19 100 16/0 19/10 37 104/119 105/81 106/201 114/10 120/302   
   SEEN-BY: 123/130 128/187 129/14 142/104 153/757 7715 154/10 30 50   
   SEEN-BY: 154/110 700 203/0 218/700 840 220/20 90 221/1 6 360 226/18   
   SEEN-BY: 226/20 30 44 50 227/114 229/110 134 206 300 307 317 400 426   
   SEEN-BY: 229/428 470 664 700 705 240/5832 266/512 280/5003 291/111   
   SEEN-BY: 301/1 320/119 219 319 2119 322/757 762 326/101 335/364 341/66   
   SEEN-BY: 342/200 396/45 423/81 460/58 633/280 712/848 902/26 2320/0   
   SEEN-BY: 2320/105 304 3634/12 5020/400 5075/35   
   PATH: 2320/105 154/10 221/6 1 320/219 229/426