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   CAZ000-162100-   
      
   Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0020   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   802 AM EST Mon Feb 16 2026   
      
   Areas affected...Southern California...   
      
   Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible   
      
   Valid 161300Z - 162100Z   
      
   SUMMARY...Strong dynamics/ascent will support strengthening   
   moisture flux across Southern California and the Transverse Ranges   
   this morning with pivoting cold front allowing for slightly   
   increased duration of moderate rainfall with hourly rates of   
   .5-.75"/hr with isolated potential to 1" locally.  Totals of 1-2"   
   along the coast and 3-5" in the terrain may result in increased   
   runoff for possible flash flooding and or mudslides, especially   
   near recent burn scars.   
      
   DISCUSSION...GOES-W depicts a compact inner core of the deep upper   
   low/trof continuing to dig southward near 36N129.5W with a broad   
   diffluent region in the northeast quadrant where the exit of a   
   130kt 250mb jet speed max is providing solid diffluence/divergence   
   aloft for expansive upper-level cirrus shield with enhancing   
   perpendicular transverse banding.  A subtle but important embedded   
   shortwave along the left exit of the jet shows a the developing   
   baroclinic leaf just northeast of the 35N125W benchmark.  This   
   approaching wave coupled with the digging upper-level core is   
   supporting surface cyclogenesis along the cold front in the   
   vicinity of the SLO/Monterey county offshore waters, allowing for   
   backing and strengthening low level flow off the California Bight   
   through Santa Barbara county.  VWP has seen an increase of   
   925-850mb winds over 35kts while veering from SSE to SSW to over   
   50kts at 700mb.   This solid WAA profile has a bit of low level   
   lapse rates as well to support 500-650 J/kg of MUCAPE in proximity   
   to the cold front toward Point Conception.=20   
      
   The overall interplay of the upper-level low and shortwave will   
   allow for solid negative tilting of the upper-trof providing   
   strong 75-90 degrees of low level directional convergence along   
   the front while the confluence of 850 and 700mb moisture streams   
   will align for enhanced moisture flux convergence bringing the   
   slightly below average moisture values up toward something more   
   average or slightly above average around 1" in total PWAT, with   
   CIRA LPW animations denoting this trend is on track mostly in the   
   surface to 850mb layer.   
      
   So with the combination of increasing flux convergence and minor   
   instability, pre-frontal showered and possible weak/narrow shallow   
   thunderstorms convective cores of .75" to possible 1"/hr rates may   
   occur over the next few hours as the front rounds the Cape and   
   gets that extra bump due to steepening orographic ascent as well,   
   though coastal showers will still be intense capable of a quick   
   .5"+ rainfall total too, making urban style flooding problematic.=20   
   The cold front will begin to press eastward, but in the short-term   
   as surface low deepens, the pivot/fulcrum of rotation may allow   
   for overrunning showers to persist across SBA into the TROWAL   
   across SLO and Monterey counties for the next few hours keeping   
   localized totals of 2-4" possible, with some continued higher   
   runoff and possible localized flooding risk.   
      
   Flash flooding risk will increase, as IVT values steadily increase   
   from the 400 range toward 600 kg/m/s, likely peaking as the cold   
   front and warm conveyor belt moisture stream flow orthogonally   
   intersects the Transverse Range of Ventura county with HREF   
   probably of 1"/hr near 30% between 18-20z, with 3-5" totals   
   expected through 00z.    As such, flash flooding is considered   
   possible through the remainder of the morning and into the   
   afternoon as it reaches the Los Angles Metro proper after 18z.=20   
      
   Gallina   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=   
   DZ3fjg!95dfXy5F6loNRbNt-tcBUWF77z-5_cLiTGcwDMX-mJQ-THiN2tqReSdy2vY1Q0yF6ruy=   
   SwLb9Vo1twaJhU1n4a2w99Y$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...LOX...MTR...SGX...   
      
   ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...   
      
   LAT...LON   36482138 36142073 35402021 34891962 34551875=20   
               34521780 34001755 33261777 33361890 33732006=20   
               34142075 34802105 35642182 36142185=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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