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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
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   ACUS01 KWNS 161255   
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   SPC AC 161254   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0654 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026   
      
   Valid 161300Z - 171200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL   
   PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Strong thunderstorms may impact the coastal areas of central and   
   southern California today.  These storms may produce locally   
   damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado.   
      
   ...Coastal central into southern CA...   
   Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent upper trough over   
   the eastern Pacific with this feature forecast to move across CA   
   through the evening.  Within the base of the trough, an intense   
   cyclonically curved speed max (around 100 kt at 500 mb) will nose   
   east into the US/Mexican border and Baja California by late this   
   afternoon before moving into the Desert Southwest tonight.   
      
   In the low levels, an elongated area of surface low pressure will   
   migrate from the central coast into the interior valleys, and   
   subsequently into the northern Great Basin/ID by later this evening.   
   An attendant cold front will push inland during the day with shallow   
   convective squalls likely focusing along or ahead of the front.   
   Forecast soundings show meager buoyancy developing immediately ahead   
   of the convection which may aid in a few stronger/deeper updrafts.   
   Ample flow in the lowest 1-km MSL may result in a few   
   stronger/locally damaging gusts with short bands/segments within the   
   broader rain shield.  A brief tornado cannot be ruled out before   
   this limited risk is shunted southward along the coast and it   
   dissipates by early evening.   
      
   ...Coastal southwest OR and northern CA...   
   Overnight, an upper trough will dive southward just off the Pacific   
   Northwest, with the left-exit region of the upper jet pushing into   
   northern CA early Tuesday morning.  While surface temperatures will   
   be cool and in the 40s F in the wake of the earlier wave, this   
   secondary trough will bring cold temperatures aloft with and 500 mb   
   temperatures to around -35 C. As such, SBCAPE of a few hundred J/kg   
   will exist as the cold front moves across the coastal counties.   
   Low-topped convection may yield locally strong wind gusts near the   
   immediate coast.   
      
   ..Smith/Moore.. 02/16/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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