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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
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   ACUS48 KWNS 161002   
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   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0400 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026   
      
   Valid 191200Z - 241200Z   
      
   ...DISCUSSION...   
   Medium-range guidance indicates that a sub-1000 mb surface cyclone,   
   centered across the central Great Plains at the outset of the   
   period, may undergo a period of further deepening as it migrates   
   across and northeast of the lower Missouri Valley, toward the Great   
   Lakes, late Thursday afternoon or evening.  Perhaps most notable,   
   latest model output appears a bit more aggressive than last night   
   concerning a corridor of warm sector moisture return into the   
   vicinity of the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers.  It   
   now appears that this may include surface dew points increasing as   
   high as the upper 50s to lower 60s F by around 20/00Z, which may   
   advect at least a bit further east-northeastward through the lower   
   Ohio Valley, before being cut off later Thursday evening.  Though   
   still somewhat modest, and perhaps only supportive of CAPE on the   
   order of 500 J/kg, this probably will be conducive to severe   
   thunderstorm development, in the presence of more than sufficient   
   deep-layer shear and large-scale ascent to support organized   
   convection.  This may include supercells with potential to produce   
   tornadoes, and perhaps an upscale growing cluster with strong to   
   severe gusts for a period Thursday evening.   
      
   It appears that this cyclone will weaken substantively across the   
   Great Lakes region on Friday, with renewed cyclogenesis possible to   
   the east of the Blue Ridge, or perhaps primarily offshore of the Mid   
   Atlantic coast.  So, while increasing low-level moisture return may   
   continue into the warm sector across parts of the Southeast and Mid   
   Atlantic, the extent to which mid/upper support remains conducive to   
   severe weather potential remains unclear.   
      
   By late this coming weekend into at least next Monday, convective   
   potential appears likely to diminish as large-scale mid/upper   
   ridging expands across and east of the Rockies toward the Atlantic   
   Seaboard.   
      
   ..Kerr.. 02/16/2026   
      
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