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   FOUS30 KWBC 160819   
   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   319 AM EST Mon Feb 16 2026   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 12Z Mon Feb 16 2026 - 12Z Tue Feb 17 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF   
   CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...   
      
   A mid to upper-level trough will propagate into the West Coast,=20   
   while a surface wave does the same this afternoon. Showers and=20   
   scattered to isolated thunderstorms will spread south from the=20   
   central California coast this morning down to SoCal tonight. The=20   
   most impactful rainfall will likely occur between late morning and   
   early evening. A combination of favorable upper and LLJ dynamics=20   
   (120+ kts upper, 40-50 kts 850 mb respectively) within a=20   
   relatively moist (0.75-1" PWATs representing the 90th percentile)=20   
   and an unstable environment (100-300 J/Kg MLCAPE) will likely=20   
   produce efficient rain rates this afternoon, especially over parts   
   of the Central CA Coast down through the San Rafael Mountains and=20   
   northern Los Angeles metro.   
      
   HREF neighborhood probabilities indicate over a 25% chance of=20   
   exceeding 2" in 24 hours by Tuesday morning across much of the=20   
   aforementioned areas, with some embedded signals for 5"+ within=20   
   upslope areas of the Transverse Ranges and Santa Lucia Range. Burn   
   scars, urbanized and upslope areas will be especially susceptible   
   to runoff. Progressive storm motion will mitigate flash flood=20   
   risk.   
      
   Kebede   
      
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Tue Feb 17 2026 - 12Z Wed Feb 18 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS   
   OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...   
      
   Another mid-level trough dives south along the West Coast on   
   Tuesday, sending another round of showers and isolated   
   thunderstorms into the central and southern California Coast.   
   Ingredients will be less impressive on Tuesday than today, thus a   
   marginal risk from the Santa Cruz Mountains down through the San   
   Diego metro will suffice. Snow levels will also be lower so=20   
   upslope portions of the Transverse Ranges will likely see snow=20   
   where they see rain today. Saturated soils from antecedent rainfall   
   will be an important factor in any isolated flash flooding that=20   
   occurs within the marginal risk area.   
      
   Kebede   
      
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Wed Feb 18 2026 - 12Z Thu Feb 19 2026   
      
   ...THE PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS   
   LESS THAN 5 PERCENT...   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6TM2HwBWra44a_y0McqiG600WLjSVKThw-O81OQw4SIK=   
   CCA2_pMgu45X1ZdTYTG_S_4Y5YPo20wJVY5-K3KYXJPX8yo$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6TM2HwBWra44a_y0McqiG600WLjSVKThw-O81OQw4SIK=   
   CCA2_pMgu45X1ZdTYTG_S_4Y5YPo20wJVY5-K3KY83P3WHo$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6TM2HwBWra44a_y0McqiG600WLjSVKThw-O81OQw4SIK=   
   CCA2_pMgu45X1ZdTYTG_S_4Y5YPo20wJVY5-K3KYrR04E6c$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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