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   MSGID: 169579.weather@1:2320/105 2dfa9df3   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS03 KWNS 160812   
   SWODY3   
   SPC AC 160811   
      
   Day 3 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0211 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026   
      
   Valid 181200Z - 191200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.   
   Wednesday through Wednesday night, with probabilities for   
   thunderstorm development generally low.   
      
   ...Discussion...   
   An initial mid-level perturbation and associated surface troughing   
   pivoting through the Upper Midwest and adjacent Great Lakes region   
   by the beginning of this period are forecast to undergo substantive   
   weakening Wednesday through Wednesday night.  It is possible that a   
   residual area of lower/mid-tropospheric forcing for ascent, coupled   
   with limited moisture return, may maintain sufficient strength to   
   support continuing convective development capable of producing   
   lightning while spreading through the lower Great Lakes vicinity   
   into the day Wednesday.  However, this potential is not readily   
   evident in available NAM forecast soundings, and thunderstorm   
   probabilities are probably near the minimum 10 percent threshold for   
   a categorical thunder area.   
      
   Upstream, substantive spread is evident in the latest model output   
   concerning short wave developments within amplified mid/upper   
   troughing near the Pacific coast.  It does appear that one emerging   
   perturbation may support notable cyclogenesis from the lee of the   
   Colorado Rockies into the central Great Plains late Wednesday   
   through Wednesday night.  However, modest inland moisture return off   
   a gradually modifying Gulf boundary layer is generally forecast to   
   be focused east of the lower Mississippi Valley, into the Southeast,   
   within a broad belt of south to southwesterly flow around low-level   
   ridging centered over the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes of   
   the western Atlantic.   
      
   ..Kerr.. 02/16/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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