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   ACUS02 KWNS 160556   
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   SPC AC 160554   
      
   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1154 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026   
      
   Valid 171200Z - 181200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Scattered thunderstorm activity is possible across Pacific coastal   
   areas and the Central Valley of California Tuesday into Tuesday   
   night, as well as across parts of the mid Missouri Valley into Upper   
   Midwest Tuesday night.  However, the risk for severe storms appears   
   low.   
      
   ...Discussion...   
   Models continue to indicate that a lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone   
   will weaken while migrating inland of the Pacific Northwest coast   
   Tuesday.  However, an initially intense offshore jet is forecast to   
   continue digging south-southeastward across California coastal areas   
   to the south of San Francisco Bay, toward the lower Colorado Valley   
   through late Tuesday night, contributing to the maintenance of   
   amplified larger-scale troughing across and inland of the U.S.   
   Pacific Coast.   
      
   Downstream, a broad swath of seasonably strong west-southwesterly   
   mid/upper flow is forecast to continue developing east of the   
   southern Rockies, across the south central Great Plains and Ohio   
   Valley, as the remnants of preceding inland migrating troughing   
   pivot across the northern Rockies and much of the middle/lower   
   Missouri Valley into the Upper Midwest by late Tuesday night.   
   Models continue to indicate that initially deep surface troughing   
   accompanying this perturbation will begin to slowly weaken, but a   
   broad belt of strong southwesterly low-level flow (including  40-50   
   kt around 850 mb) may be maintained while spreading from the   
   central/southern Great Plains into the Ohio Valley by 12Z Wednesday.   
      
   To the west/northwest of the low-level jet axis, a plume of rather   
   modest low-level moisture, including surface dew points in the mid   
   40s to lower/mid 50s F, may advect from parts of the central Great   
   Plains across and northeast of the lower/mid Missouri Valley,   
   beneath a warm/dry elevated mixed-layer initially overspreading much   
   of the central and southern Great Plains through middle and lower   
   Mississippi Valley.  However, substantive Gulf boundary-layer   
   modification and inland return flow still appears unlikely through   
   this period and beyond.   
      
   ...Pacific Coast...   
   Low probabilities for thunderstorm activity may linger into early   
   Tuesday nearly southern California coastal areas.  However, the   
   primary convective potential, including scattered thunderstorm   
   development, seems likely to become focused across northern and   
   central California coastal areas into the Central Valley Tuesday   
   afternoon into Tuesday night.  This will accompany strong mid-level   
   cooling and forcing for ascent associated with the digging mid/upper   
   jet, which may provide support for stronger cells becoming capable   
   of producing gusty winds and small hail, particularly near coastal   
   areas around San Francisco Bay as early as midday Tuesday.  It still   
   appears that the lack of steeper lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates,   
   and more substantive CAPE, may minimize the potential for storms to   
   reach severe criteria, but this will continue to be monitored in   
   later outlooks for this period.   
      
   ...Mid Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest...   
   Given at least limited low-level moisture return, it still appears   
   that forcing for ascent may contribute to a corridor of thunderstorm   
   development as strong mid-level height falls overspread the region   
   late Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night.  Based on the latest   
   forecast soundings and other model output, the potential for severe   
   hail and strong surface gusts still appears rather low, but perhaps   
   not entirely out of the question.  This will continue to be   
   monitored in later outlook updates for this period.   
      
   ..Kerr.. 02/16/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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