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   MSGID: 169575.weather@1:2320/105 2dfa7d1b   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS01 KWNS 160552   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 160551   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1151 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026   
      
   Valid 161200Z - 171200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF   
   THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL COUNTIES...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Strong thunderstorms may impact the coastal areas of central and   
   southern California this afternoon and evening. These storms may   
   produce locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado.   
      
   ...Coastal central into southern CA...   
   A potent upper trough will move across CA during the afternoon and   
   evening, with a 100+ kt midlevel jet nosing across southern CA. At   
   the surface, low pressure will deepen as it moves into central CA,   
   with a cold front affecting much of the coastline after 18Z. Strong   
   wind convergence along the front will result in a line of shallow   
   convection, with embedded thunderstorms possible. This line is   
   likely to affect the central coastline by around 18Z, and through   
   the remainder of southern CA by 00Z. Strong wind gusts will be   
   likely, with a few locations possibly reaching over 50 kt. Weak   
   instability and cool surface temperatures will be mitigating factors   
   to tornado risk, however, embedded circulations within the line   
   cannot be ruled out.   
      
   ...Interior Valleys...   
   It appears substantial precipitation will hamper   
   heating/destabilization for much of the day, with very little SBCAPE   
   evident on various model forecast soundings. As such, despite model   
   low-level warm advection with veering winds with height, it appears   
   lapses rates may not quite favor severe convection, and the low   
   probabilities have been removed.   
      
   ...Coastal southwest OR and northern CA...Late...   
   Overnight, an upper trough will dive southward just off the Pacific   
   Northwest, with the left-exit region of the upper jet pushing into   
   northern CA early Tuesday morning. While surface temperatures will   
   be cool and in the 40s F in the wake of the earlier wave, this   
   secondary trough will bring cold temperatures aloft with and 500 mb   
   temperatures to around -35 C. As such, SBCAPE of a few hundred J/kg   
   will exist as the cold front moves across the coastal counties.   
   Low-topped convection may produce graupel, along with locally strong   
   wind gusts.   
      
   ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 02/16/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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