TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 169574.weather@1:2320/105 2dfa40a8   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS11 KWNS 160134   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 160134=20   
   FLZ000-160400-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 0088   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0734 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026   
      
   Areas affected...Parts of north-central Florida   
      
   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20   
      
   Valid 160134Z - 160400Z   
      
   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent   
      
   SUMMARY...A localized risk of strong/damaging gusts and perhaps a   
   brief tornado will continue for the next few hours across parts of   
   north-central Florida.   
      
   DISCUSSION...Clusters of mainly disorganized thunderstorms continue   
   spreading/developing east-southeastward across north-central FL   
   within a zone of low-level confluence and weak positive theta-e   
   advection. Weak pre-convective buoyancy may continue to limit   
   updraft intensity, though a narrow plume of middle/upper 60s   
   dewpoints is contributing to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE closer to the   
   coast. Despite the weak buoyancy, the TBW 00Z sounding and VWP are   
   sampling strong low/deep-layer shear -- aided by a 40-50-kt   
   southwesterly low-level jet and 60-70-kt midlevel flow. Enhanced   
   low-level hodograph curvature (around 350 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH) may   
   favor transient circulations embedded within the clusters of storms   
   as they continue east-southeastward, and locally damaging gusts   
   and/or a brief tornado cannot be entirely ruled out for the next few   
   hours. Any severe risk is expected to remain too limited for a   
   watch.   
      
   ..Weinman/Hart.. 02/16/2026   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!4o4HJwn4lGiT0NfRMKwuuKvpzpG8YTp078Hcazmt2skGsLavZCBrQeh8N6Mcr-DFiH-Yybe4e=   
   3jSZikL6WP9x-zShxY$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...   
      
   LAT...LON   28938133 28808112 28648106 28378112 28098133 27848171   
               27568217 27478249 27508277 27718289 28008295 28358279   
               28928165 28938133=20   
      
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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