TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 169573.weather@1:2320/105 2dfa38c8   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   ACUS01 KWNS 160101   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 160059   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0659 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026   
      
   Valid 160100Z - 161200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER   
   NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   A few strong storms remain possible this evening over parts of   
   north-central Florida and southeast Georgia, with gusty winds most   
   likely.   
      
   ...Discussions...   
   A shortwave trough is currently moving across GA and FL. Between 00   
   and 06Z, rapid warming aloft will occur over the region, which will   
   likely gradually reduce storm strength.   
      
   Currently, the main zone of thunderstorm activity extends in a   
   west-east oriented band extending from the northeastern Gulf to just   
   north of Tampa and into the Atlantic, with lower-topped convection   
   beneath the cool pocket over southern GA. While deep-layer shear is   
   formidable at over 50 kt, thermodynamic profiles are not   
   particularly favorable. Area soundings at 00Z indicate a subsidence   
   inversion around 700 mb, though this is less prominent at TBW. Given   
   the loss of heating and the departing wave, storms are not expected   
   to increase in intensity, however, moderate westerly winds in the   
   low-levels, as well as 200+ effective SRH within the band of storms   
   north of Tampa could potentially produce a few damaging wind gusts.   
   A very brief tornado cannot be completely ruled out given the   
   strongly veering winds with height.   
      
   ..Jewell.. 02/16/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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