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   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   749 PM EST Sun Feb 15 2026   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 01Z Mon Feb 16 2026 - 12Z Mon Feb 16 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS COASTAL   
   AREAS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...   
      
   An uptick in rainfall intensity is expected later this evening   
   across portions of the central/northern CA coast as a cold front   
   moves inland. There is some weak instability near this front, and   
   recent HRRR runs indicate that low level convergence associated   
   with the front will push inland over the next several hours   
   resulting in an expansion of rainfall, including some embedded=20   
   heavier rates. The general consensus is for 1-2" of rain through=20   
   12z anywhere from Santa Cruz county northward towards Sonoma, Napa   
   and Lake counties. Recent HRRR runs indicate hourly rainfall=20   
   upwards of 0.5" anywhere within this corridor, with highly=20   
   localized rates around 0.75" more focused along the immediate=20   
   coast. These rainfall amounts will result in isolated flood impacts   
   through the overnight hours, especially across more susceptible=20   
   urban areas. It's looking more likely that any heavier rainfall=20   
   farther south will hold off until after 12z, but with the risk=20   
   picking up not long after 12z, and some inherent timing=20   
   uncertainty, we will let the Marginal risk ride. But the main=20   
   threat area through 12z is farther north from around Santa Cruz=20   
   county towards Lake county.=20   
      
   Chenard   
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Mon Feb 16 2026 - 12Z Tue Feb 17 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF   
   CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...   
      
   ...21Z Outlook Update...   
   The ongoing forecast is on track with no changes needed. Models are   
   consistent with depicting an eastward-translating line of   
   convection, with strong upslope and abundant moisture contributing   
   to locally heavy rainfall. That rainfall is expected to occur   
   across sensitive terrain areas of southern California -   
   particularly near the Transverse Ranges where burn scars may   
   promote debris flows. Convection should move fairly quickly through   
   the region over the course of the forecast period - though   
   conditions will support local rain rates of 0.5-1 inch/hr at times   
   near the strongest convection.   
      
   See the previous discussion for more information.   
      
   Cook   
      
   ...Previous Discussion...   
      
   An East Pacific trough will strengthen and move into the Western   
   United States on Monday. This deepening upper pattern will tap   
   subtropical moisture. IVTs and PWATs will be above the 90th   
   percentiles over portions of southern California. Strong upper   
   level winds (125-150 kts) and a sufficient LLJ (30-40 kts) could   
   support efficient rain rates along the coast. CAPE between 100-250   
   J/Kg within a moist environment could produce 1"/hr rain rates.   
   Burn scars, upslope areas (where enhancement will likely occur)   
   and urbanized areas are especially vulnerable to flash flooding.   
      
   Ensemble mean probabilities of exceeding 2" in 24   
   hours support the slight risk area (15% chance of flash flooding),   
   especially in southern California where probabilities in the ECENS   
   and CMCE are well over 50%.   
      
   Kebede   
      
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Tue Feb 17 2026 - 12Z Wed Feb 18 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS   
   OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...   
      
   ...21Z Outlook Update...   
   Minimal changes were made to the ongoing outlook mainly to account   
   for northward trends in the location of heavier precipitation.   
   Persistent onshore flow and cold air aloft over the region should   
   continue to support scattered shower/isolated thunderstorm activity   
   through much of the forecast period, with areas of 0.5-1.5 inch   
   rainfall totals expected across much of the central and southern   
   California coastal ranges. Some of this activity will interact with   
   local burn scars and urban areas to pose a risk of excessive   
   runoff/flash flooding. This risk should remain fairly isolated, and   
   it is uncertain how far north this risk will extend.   
      
   See the previous discussion for more information.   
      
   Cook   
      
   ...Previous Discussion...   
      
   Another disturbance brings a weaker round of rainfall to the   
   California coast on Tuesday. Isolated thunderstorms may develop   
   over southern California Tuesday evening due to the presence of   
   weak instability and a strong LLJ (40-50 kts). Ensemble exceedance   
   probabilities (0-15%) and first guess fields support a marginal   
   risk of excessive rainfall at this time.   
      
   Kebede   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!97JOHGTq5Vm2DWCf11s7BwGohUjFziJYLu7o06WEsRLn=   
   sIUK3cUj4P5dGwjAlq79Yw_2bRKqo0LULKSm1geqWw9Twog$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!97JOHGTq5Vm2DWCf11s7BwGohUjFziJYLu7o06WEsRLn=   
   sIUK3cUj4P5dGwjAlq79Yw_2bRKqo0LULKSm1geq88my2jw$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!97JOHGTq5Vm2DWCf11s7BwGohUjFziJYLu7o06WEsRLn=   
   sIUK3cUj4P5dGwjAlq79Yw_2bRKqo0LULKSm1geqcwojiqU$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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