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   ACUS11 KWNS 152112   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 152111=20   
   FLZ000-GAZ000-152245-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 0087   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0311 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026   
      
   Areas affected...Parts of southeast GA into north FL   
      
   Concerning...Tornado Watch 8...9...   
      
   Valid 152111Z - 152245Z   
      
   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 8, 9 continues.   
      
   SUMMARY...Locally damaging wind and/or a tornado remain possible   
   through the remainder of the afternoon.   
      
   DISCUSSION...The QLCS across southeast GA and north FL has become   
   disorganized this afternoon, likely due to outpacing the more robust   
   low-level moisture return. However, area VWPs continue to depict   
   strong low/midlevel flow and favorable wind profiles for organized   
   convection.=20   
      
   Across southeast GA, buoyancy will tend to remain quite weak through   
   the remainder of the afternoon. However, given the favorable wind   
   profile, any uptick in convective intensity could be accompanied by   
   a threat for locally damaging wind and/or a brief tornado.=20   
      
   Farther south, rather strong heating/mixing has occurred across   
   northeast FL. While some moistening is still expected to occur prior   
   to the arrival of deeper convection (aided by preceding stratiform   
   precipitation), strong flow and somewhat steepened low-level lapse   
   rates could favor some uptick in damaging-wind potential with time.   
   Also, given the breakdown of the earlier more linear structure, one   
   or more semi-discrete supercells (such as the one currently over   
   Suwannee/Columbia Counties) could persist and pose some   
   damaging-wind and tornado threat, especially where richer low-level   
   moisture can be maintained.=20   
      
   Late this afternoon into the early evening, strong offshore storms   
   may begin to approach the FL Gulf Coast north of Tampa Bay, which   
   may eventually necessitate expansion of WW 9, depending on   
   convective trends as the storms approach.   
      
   ..Dean/Gleason.. 02/15/2026   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!-bYg4vQZ-stDTQzHZCX-EC_S4txOMSE2Fa6MownJ6hFsu1fNL1-9JROSVA2-Zi5f45scIxCwO=   
   ejnUUGQ0cgJ2_RV5ek$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...   
      
   LAT...LON   29448352 30198293 31048206 31618160 31678117 30468129   
               29658141 28968156 28468219 28388268 28568346 29448352=20   
      
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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