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   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
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   ACUS01 KWNS 151953   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 151951   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0151 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026   
      
   Valid 152000Z - 161200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF   
   SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA INTO NORTH AND WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and   
   evening across parts of southern Georgia into north and west-central   
   Florida. Both damaging winds and a few tornadoes may occur.   
      
   ...20z Update...   
   A line of thunderstorms continues eastward into the eastern FL   
   Panhandle/northern FL Peninsula. Ahead of this line, dew points are   
   in the mid to upper 50s. MLCAPE remains somewhat weak inland, though   
   some slow increase is noted ahead of the line amid south-westerly   
   warm air advection and filtered daytime heating. Regardless of   
   weaker thermal profiles, strong upper level flow persists with deep   
   layer shear for organization remaining strong across the eastern FL   
   Panhandle into the northern FL Peninsula. The threat for strong   
   convection with potential for damaging wind and a tornado will   
   continue inland for the next few hours.   
      
   A Marginal Risk was maintained across portions of southern/central   
   Georgia where some redevelopment of thunderstorms is noted over the   
   last hour. The modestly unstable air mass ahead of this activity may   
   support potential for isolated damaging gusts through the afternoon.   
      
   ..Thornton.. 02/15/2026   
      
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026/   
      
   ...Southeast...   
   A mature mid-level cyclone evident in water vapor and visible   
   satellite imagery late this morning over MS/AL will continue to move   
   quickly eastward across the central Gulf Coast States this   
   afternoon, eventually reaching the Atlantic Coast later this   
   evening. Latest surface analysis shows a weak low over northern MS   
   and greater dewpoints present over the northeast Gulf, as strong   
   low-level warm advection contributes to moisture transport ahead of   
   an ongoing line of thunderstorms across the FL Panhandle and   
   southwest GA.   
      
   This pre-frontal band of convection is gradually strengthening late   
   this morning, even with modest mid-level lapse rates and saturated   
   profiles through much of the troposphere limiting updraft strength.   
   Boundary-layer instability will gradually increase downstream across   
   north FL/southern GA this afternoon as filtered daytime heating and   
   some increase in low-level moisture occurs (surface dewpoints rising   
   through the upper 50s to low/mid 60s). Peak MLCAPE may reach values   
   of 500-1000 J/kg per consensus of 12Z guidance.   
      
   With ample low-level and deep-layer shear associated with the   
   mid-level cyclone present over the developing warm sector, organized   
   convection mainly in the form of an eastward-moving QLCS is expected   
   to persist through the afternoon/evening as this activity moves   
   across north FL/southern GA. The northern extent of the severe risk   
   into southern/central GA/SC remains uncertain due to weak   
   instability forecast across these areas, but some guidance suggests   
   additional strong convection may develop across these areas in   
   closer proximity to cooler temperatures aloft with the upper trough.   
      
   Given the expected strength of the low/mid-level flow and related   
   shear, scattered damaging winds and a few embedded tornadoes are   
   possible wherever this line can become/remain surface based. The   
   Slight Risk has been expanded southward to include more of the   
   west-central FL Peninsula based on expectations for the broken line   
   to impact this region amid greater low-level moisture/instability   
   and sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection. For more   
   details on the near-term severe threat across parts of the FL   
   Panhandle and southwest GA, reference Mesoscale Discussion 85.   
      
   $$   
      
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