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   FOUS30 KWBC 151936   
   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   236 PM EST Sun Feb 15 2026   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 16Z Sun Feb 15 2026 - 12Z Mon Feb 16 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS COASTAL   
   AREAS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ALONG WITH PORTIONS OF THE   
   OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST...   
      
   ...OH/TN Valleys into the Southern Mid-Atlantic/Southeast...   
      
   A rather strong, but progressive closed mid-level low center and   
   associated low pressure system will move progressively through the   
   Southeast U.S. over the next 12 to 18 hours with much of the energy   
   advancing offshore of the East Coast early Monday morning. The   
   latest radar imagery shows a long-lived QLCS transiting the eastern   
   Gulf Coast region this morning, with a weaker northern extension of   
   this seen over areas of central and southern GA. This activity is   
   expected to advance generally off to the east in a very progressive   
   manner going through the afternoon and evening hours. Areas of   
   northern FL and especially the Big Bend of FL will be in the warm   
   sector may have enough instability and moisture transport to favor   
   sustainability of a well-organized band of convection that may   
   yield some localized 1 to 2 inch/hour rainfall rates. However, the   
   very dry antecedent conditions more broadly across the Southeast   
   U.S. and lack of focused heavy rainfall totals suggest it will be   
   very hard to get any consequential runoff problems. Therefore, the   
   Marginal Risk area has been trimmed out of GA/FL and the coastal   
   plain areas of the Carolinas.   
      
   Farther north across the OH/TN Valleys and southern Mid-Atlantic   
   region, a combination of strong warm air advection/isentropic   
   ascent and TROWAL activity will favor moderate to locally heavy   
   rainfall continuing this afternoon and into the evening hours. A   
   well-defined mid-level deformation zone currently over KY/TN with   
   some locally strong corridors of frontogentic forcing/lift will   
   also eject east going into tonight which will promote some   
   persistence of locally heavy rainfall. Some additional 1 to 2 inch   
   rainfall totals can be expected across the southern Mid-Atlantic in   
   particular. Given the earlier rains and moistening soils here,   
   there may be some spotty localized runoff issues, so the Marginal   
   Risk is maintained here.   
      
   ...Northern and Central California Coastal Ranges...   
      
   A deep layer trough and associated closed low offshore of the West   
   Coast will be driving energy and increasing moisture transport into   
   northern and central CA going through this afternoon and tonight.   
   IVT values near the Bay Area and extending south down as far the   
   Transverse Range should increase to as high as 300 to 400+ kg/m/s.   
   These are generally rather modest IVT values, but with localized   
   orographics/upslope flow, some of the rainfall rates should   
   increase to locally near a 0.50"/hour. The Marginal Risk area was   
   locally tweaked to account for the latest guidance which includes   
   an extension southward into parts of the Transverse Range.   
      
   Orrison   
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Mon Feb 16 2026 - 12Z Tue Feb 17 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF   
   CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...   
      
   ...21Z Outlook Update...   
   The ongoing forecast is on track with no changes needed. Models are   
   consistent with depicting an eastward-translating line of   
   convection, with strong upslope and abundant moisture contributing   
   to locally heavy rainfall. That rainfall is expected to occur=20   
   across sensitive terrain areas of southern California -=20   
   particularly near the Transverse Ranges where burn scars may=20   
   promote debris flows. Convection should move fairly quickly through   
   the region over the course of the forecast period - though=20   
   conditions will support local rain rates of 0.5-1 inch/hr at times=20   
   near the strongest convection.   
      
   See the previous discussion for more information.   
      
   Cook   
      
   ...Previous Discussion...   
      
   An East Pacific trough will strengthen and move into the Western   
   United States on Monday. This deepening upper pattern will tap   
   subtropical moisture. IVTs and PWATs will be above the 90th   
   percentiles over portions of southern California. Strong upper   
   level winds (125-150 kts) and a sufficient LLJ (30-40 kts) could   
   support efficient rain rates along the coast. CAPE between 100-250   
   J/Kg within a moist environment could produce 1"/hr rain rates.   
   Burn scars, upslope areas (where enhancement will likely occur)   
   and urbanized areas are especially vulnerable to flash flooding.   
      
   Ensemble mean probabilities of exceeding 2" in 24   
   hours support the slight risk area (15% chance of flash flooding),   
   especially in southern California where probabilities in the ECENS   
   and CMCE are well over 50%.   
      
   Kebede   
      
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Tue Feb 17 2026 - 12Z Wed Feb 18 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS   
   OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...   
      
   ...21Z Outlook Update...   
   Minimal changes were made to the ongoing outlook mainly to account   
   for northward trends in the location of heavier precipitation.   
   Persistent onshore flow and cold air aloft over the region should   
   continue to support scattered shower/isolated thunderstorm activity   
   through much of the forecast period, with areas of 0.5-1.5 inch   
   rainfall totals expected across much of the central and southern   
   California coastal ranges. Some of this activity will interact with   
   local burn scars and urban areas to pose a risk of excessive   
   runoff/flash flooding. This risk should remain fairly isolated, and   
   it is uncertain how far north this risk will extend.=20=20   
      
   See the previous discussion for more information.   
      
   Cook   
      
   ...Previous Discussion...   
      
   Another disturbance brings a weaker round of rainfall to the   
   California coast on Tuesday. Isolated thunderstorms may develop   
   over southern California Tuesday evening due to the presence of   
   weak instability and a strong LLJ (40-50 kts). Ensemble exceedance   
   probabilities (0-15%) and first guess fields support a marginal   
   risk of excessive rainfall at this time.   
      
   Kebede   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_vogTPA1aFg3NgSz2bRboELJ9xF7cr1qZf1fQfZUgl7f=   
   ifYChTbJn6vbstOXAJTypqJVmXk9_ek8szbTBSfTwiKBzkw$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_vogTPA1aFg3NgSz2bRboELJ9xF7cr1qZf1fQfZUgl7f=   
   ifYChTbJn6vbstOXAJTypqJVmXk9_ek8szbTBSfTxX4u6k4$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_vogTPA1aFg3NgSz2bRboELJ9xF7cr1qZf1fQfZUgl7f=   
   ifYChTbJn6vbstOXAJTypqJVmXk9_ek8szbTBSfTVQRxWV0$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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