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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   ACUS02 KWNS 151714   
   SWODY2   
   SPC AC 151713   
      
   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1113 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026   
      
   Valid 161200Z - 171200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN   
   CALIFORNIA COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY....   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Strong thunderstorms may impact southern California coastal areas   
   and perhaps parts of the Central Valley on Monday. These storms will   
   be accompanied by at least some risk for damaging wind gusts and   
   perhaps a tornado or two.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   A strong mid-level trough and associated mid-level jet streak will   
   impact southern California on Monday with an amplifying ridge across   
   the central CONUS. The southern stream trough across southern   
   California will merge with a northern stream trough across the   
   Northwest during the day Monday. Therefore, a surface low which will   
   move onshore along the southern/central California coast on Monday   
   morning/early afternoon will combine with the northern surface low   
   and result in a very strong surface low centered over the northern   
   Rockies by the end of the period.   
      
   ...Southern California...   
   Low-level moisture advection will lead to weak destabilization off   
   the southern California coast Monday morning and into the early   
   afternoon. Most CAM guidance indicates strengthening convection   
   along the front as it approaches the coast. A strong low-level jet   
   and some low-level hodograph curvature may support some damaging   
   winds and potential for a QLCS tornado or two. The primary limiting   
   factor will be the relatively shallow nature of the instability.   
   Some areas within the line may not even produce lightning, but given   
   the convective nature of the line and the strong wind profile, a   
   marginal risk is warranted.   
      
   ...Central California...   
   In the wake of the initial precipitation surge, cooling temperatures   
   aloft and perhaps some heating in the Central Valley may result in a   
   brief window during the afternoon which may favor a few stronger   
   storms. This threat would be confined to a narrow area, but HRRR   
   forecast soundings between 21-22Z show some weak instability,   
   moderately steep lapse rates, and around 200 m2/s2 0-1km SRH. The 2%   
   tornado probabilities have been maintained for this limited duration   
   threat.   
      
   ..Bentley.. 02/15/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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