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   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   ACUS11 KWNS 151710   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 151709=20   
   FLZ000-GAZ000-151845-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 0086   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1109 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026   
      
   Areas affected...Parts of south GA into north FL   
      
   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20   
      
   Valid 151709Z - 151845Z   
      
   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent   
      
   SUMMARY...A threat for damaging winds and a couple tornadoes will   
   develop later this afternoon. Tornado Watch issuance is likely.   
      
   DISCUSSION...A QLCS has continued to become better organized late   
   this morning from southwest GA into the FL Panhandle, with some   
   earlier reported wind damage and occasional embedded circulations   
   noted on radar. The downstream environment into southeast GA and the   
   northern FL Peninsula is currently rather dry and stable. However,   
   continued diurnal heating will result in temperatures warming   
   through the 70s F, while continued low-level moisture transport will   
   allow dewpoints to rise into the 60s F. MLCAPE is expected to   
   increase into the 500-1000 J/kg range (locally greater where   
   stronger heating occurs) ahead of the ongoing QLCS, supporting   
   maintenance and potential intensification of this system as it moves   
   eastward.=20   
      
   While some veering of low-level flow is expected with time, strong   
   deep-layer flow will continue to result in favorable wind profiles,   
   with effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2 expected to persist ahead of the   
   QLCS. Persist bowing segments and embedded mesocyclones will pose a   
   threat of damaging wind and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. A couple   
   semi-discrete cells may eventually develop along the southern   
   periphery of the QLCS, which could pose some threat of all severe   
   hazards (including hail), though this scenario is more uncertain.   
      
   As ongoing convection begins to approach the eastern portion of WW   
   8, downstream Tornado Watch issuance into parts of southeast GA and   
   north FL is expected this afternoon.   
      
   ..Dean/Gleason.. 02/15/2026   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!-fjUYCvPf08AeVAC1u2tQ8Wb0WC4p5ruiFUztjGbL3bXxn64_LWtKM16wlLhszWiAmHkp8qJ0=   
   9atahTzF0RbQD8TTt0$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...   
      
   LAT...LON   29208305 30898320 31918319 32238264 32128209 31918160   
               31288137 29948116 29828112 28938170 28738200 28598250   
               28718290 29208305=20   
      
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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