TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 169552.weather@1:2320/105 2df98c6a   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS11 KWNS 151246   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 151245=20   
   GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-151445-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 0084   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0645 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026   
      
   Areas affected...Far southeast Alabama into the Florida Panhandle   
   and southwest Georgia   
      
   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20   
      
   Valid 151245Z - 151445Z   
      
   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent   
      
   SUMMARY...A gradual intensification of a weak QLCS is anticipated   
   through the morning hours. An uptick in severe wind and tornado   
   potential is anticipated as this occur, although it remains unclear   
   exactly when convective intensity will be sufficient to support a   
   substantial severe threat. Trends will be monitored, and watch   
   issuance is possible at some point this morning.   
      
   DISCUSSION...An uptick in reflectivity and lightning counts has been   
   noted over the past 30-45 minutes within a weak QLCS as it traverses   
   the western FL Panhandle and southeast AL. Very limited buoyancy   
   near the coast has modulated convective intensity for much of the   
   early morning, but recent guidance has been persistent in showing a   
   re-intensification of the line at some point in the coming hours.   
   These recent trends suggest that the early stages of   
   re-intensification may be underway. Surface observations along the   
   FL coast show dewpoints increasing into the mid-60s, which may be   
   sufficient for MLCAPE values upwards of 750 J/kg immediately ahead   
   of the line based on latest RAP forecast soundings. Convective   
   elements within the line should continue to intensify as further   
   low-level moistening occurs in the coming hours. Additionally,   
   regional VWPs continue to sample ample low-level and deep-layer   
   shear, which will support an organized linear mode capable of severe   
   gusts and embedded mesovortices once convective maturation is   
   achieved. Although it remains somewhat unclear exactly when the QLCS   
   will reach sufficient intensity to pose a robust severe threat,   
   watch issuance will likely be needed at some point later this   
   morning.   
      
   ..Moore/Smith.. 02/15/2026   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!80ypCz-oHjGwO2czWBi4LqBWtZh-ROT3Wq6cA7Gb7zIaKWgvFb9hH7bn6-q-eJUrDl2iOJIVD=   
   nLcxxQP2OrUzoDfJII$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...   
      
   LAT...LON   30478668 30768645 31278609 31568592 31748369 31758334   
               31538318 31128318 30678336 30138379 29968397 29768437   
               29598482 29568506 29748538 29958551 30098566 30198586   
               30288613 30318636 30378660 30478668=20   
      
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
   To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to   
   https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email   
   Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.   
      
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)   
   SEEN-BY: 19/10 104/119 105/81 106/201 114/10 120/302 128/187 129/14   
   SEEN-BY: 153/757 7715 154/10 30 50 110 700 218/700 840 220/20 70 90   
   SEEN-BY: 221/1 6 360 226/17 18 20 30 44 50 227/114 229/110 134 206   
   SEEN-BY: 229/300 307 317 400 426 428 470 664 700 705 266/512 267/800   
   SEEN-BY: 291/111 301/1 320/219 322/757 335/364 341/66 342/200 396/45   
   SEEN-BY: 460/58 633/280 712/848 770/1 100 340 350 772/210 220 230   
   SEEN-BY: 902/26 2320/0 105 304 3634/12 5020/400 5075/35   
   PATH: 2320/105 154/10 221/6 218/840 770/1 633/280 229/426