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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
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   ACUS01 KWNS 151245   
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   SPC AC 151243   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0643 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026   
      
   Valid 151300Z - 161200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR SOUTHEAST   
   ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO NORTH   
   FLORIDA...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today across much   
   of northern Florida and into parts of southern Georgia and Alabama.   
   Wind damage as well as a tornado or two will be possible.   
      
   ...Southeast AL and southern GA into the FL Panhandle/northern FL...   
      
   Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level shortwave   
   trough moving quickly eastward across the central Gulf Coast.   
   Surface analysis indicates a partially modified airmass over the   
   northeast Gulf as a warm conveyor contributes to northward-advancing   
   moisture ahead of a broken band of convection that has outrun a cold   
   front overnight.  Model guidance shows a low moving eastward across   
   central MS-AL-GA through mid evening.   
      
   The aforementioned pre-frontal band of convection has exhibited a   
   notable paucity in lightning during the late overnight hours, which   
   has coincided with the diurnal temperature minimum.  However, scant   
   buoyancy this morning (less than 250 J/kg MLCAPE) will gradually   
   increase through the morning into the early afternoon (250-1000 J/kg   
   MLCAPE) amidst modest heating and some increase in low-level   
   moisture (surface dewpoints rising through the upper 50s to lower to   
   mid 60s deg F).  The severe risk through mid morning remains unclear   
   due to limited buoyancy, but some increase severe-storm threat is   
   expected---see forthcoming MCD #0084 for short-term details.   
   Isolated damaging gusts and a brief tornado are possible before the   
   greatest window of opportunity for severe appears to occur beginning   
   late this morning through the mid-late afternoon as this activity   
   moves east into the eastern FL Panhandle/north FL and southern GA.   
   The severe risk will likely focus near more intense portions of an   
   eastward-moving band near inflections/bows, as well as a few   
   mesovortices.  Widely scattered damaging gusts and a couple of brief   
   tornadoes are possible.   
      
   ..Smith/Moore.. 02/15/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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