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   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0400 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026   
      
   Valid 181200Z - 231200Z   
      
   ...DISCUSSION...   
   Medium-range model output suggests that amplified large-scale   
   troughing, initially centered near the Pacific coast at the outset   
   of the period, will gradually develop eastward, across and east of   
   the Rockies during the latter half of the week into next weekend.   
   It appears that this will occur in generally piecemeal fashion, as a   
   series of smaller-scale/lower amplitude perturbations.  However,   
   given the presence of an initially seasonably warm environment to   
   the lee of the Rockies, potential exists for periodic lee surface   
   cyclogenesis, possible strong.   
      
   To this point, guidance has exhibited rather poor predictability   
   with these features, but there does appear at least somewhat greater   
   certainty in potential for substantive surface cyclogenesis by   
   Thursday, across the central Great Plains toward the Great Lakes   
   region.  Even so, it still appears that preceding Gulf   
   boundary-layer moistening and inland return flow will only support   
   limited moistening within the developing warm sector across the   
   middle Mississippi Valley through much of the day Thursday.  By   
   Thursday night, there are indications that a modest late moisture   
   surge into the lower Ohio Valley could contribute to increasing   
   convective potential, but the extent of the severe threat remains   
   unclear at this time.   
      
   Guidance still indicates that better low-level moisture return may   
   commence ahead of the cold front trailing the cyclone, across parts   
   of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys through Ark-La-Tex and southern Great   
   Plains Friday into Saturday, as upstream perturbations begin to   
   emerge from the West.  However, current model output suggests that   
   renewed cyclogenesis may be more subdued, and it is possible that   
   convection may tend to develop and train along and to the cool side   
   of the front and/or outflow, with uncertain severe weather   
   potential.   
      
   ..Kerr.. 02/15/2026   
      
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