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   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
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   ACUS11 KWNS 150904   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 150904=20   
   FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-151100-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 0083   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0304 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026   
      
   Areas affected...Far southeast Mississippi into southern Alabama and   
   the far western Florida Peninsula   
      
   Concerning...Tornado Watch 7...   
      
   Valid 150904Z - 151100Z   
      
   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 7 continues.   
      
   SUMMARY...A weakening trend has been noted with the QLCS exiting the   
   lower Mississippi River Valley over the past two hours. While a lull   
   in convective intensity is anticipated over the coming hours, the   
   downstream environment could still support damaging to severe wind   
   gusts in the near term.   
      
   DISCUSSION...Diminishing lightning counts, warming cloud-top   
   temperatures, and decreasing VIL values have all been observed over   
   the past two hours with the QLCS traversing southeast LA and   
   southern MS. The viable warm sector capable of support intense   
   convection continues to become spatially confined closer to the   
   coast where low to mid-60s dewpoints remain in place. Veering   
   surface winds ahead of the line suggest low-level convergence is   
   diminishing and is likely also contributing to the weakening trend   
   in conjunction with limited buoyancy. However, the KMOB VWP   
   continues to sample approximately 25 knots of 0-3 km BWD and around   
   40 knots of 0-6 km BWD ahead of the line. This, coupled with   
   residual buoyancy along the coast, may continue to support sporadic   
   damaging/severe winds across the remainder of WW 7. Recent HRRR   
   solutions seem to support this idea and hint at more intense cells   
   over the Gulf waters moving onshore through around 11 UTC that may   
   pose a localized severe wind risk.   
      
   ..Moore.. 02/15/2026   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!4GvhQs4XfwTOTrMYs-FmvIBM_unxyMEeXTACaW3ZS5nN_Ysfto4l3AZ7Y5LfAkyTYFlmbipyK=   
   6I8c4k6GDhwnXNmuSg$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...LIX...   
      
   LAT...LON   30508904 30768880 31198875 31318862 31358665 31318640   
               31208626 30648626 30458636 30388674 30298718 30238782   
               30258828 30248884 30248904 30508904=20   
      
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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