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   FOUS30 KWBC 150840   
   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   340 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 12Z Sun Feb 15 2026 - 12Z Mon Feb 16 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS   
   OF THE MID-ATLANTIC, OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS, AND SOUTHEAST, AND   
   NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...   
      
   ...Southeast/Mid-Atlantic...   
      
   A closed mid-level low will cut across the Southeast and into the   
   Atlantic today. A squall line propagating through the Central Gulf   
   Coast this morning will weaken into more of a QLCS as it   
   progresses through the Southeast this afternoon. Severe   
   thunderstorm are possible over portions of Alabama, Georgia and   
   Florida, where instability will be the greatest (300-600 J/Kg   
   MUCAPE). That combined with PWATs in the 1-2" range and a 30-40kt   
   LLJ could generating efficient rain rates capable of producing   
   isolated flash flooding. Relatively dry soils and the progressive   
   nature of the QLCS mitigate the flash flood threat in the   
   Southeast.   
      
   A deeper layer moisture profile over the Mid-Atlantic   
   and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys may produce higher areal totals today,   
   but the rates are more likely to be lower than in the Southeast due   
   to less CAPE. That being said, some upslope enhancement is possible   
   over portions of the Central/Southern Appalachians, where soils are   
   fairly saturated/susceptible to flash flooding. HREF probabilities   
   seem to support the higher areal qpf footprint found in the CAMS   
   over the Mid-Atlantic today.   
      
   ...California...   
      
   A deep low pressure system will slowly glide down the California   
   coastline today, while the mid-level shortwave associated with it   
   weakens. Rounds of showers and scattered to isolated thunderstorms   
   could produce instances of flash flooding, particularly over urban   
   areas, burn scars and saturated soils beginning this afternoon.   
      
   Kebede   
      
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Mon Feb 16 2026 - 12Z Tue Feb 17 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF   
   CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...   
      
   An East Pacific trough will strengthen and move into the Western   
   United States on Monday. This deepening upper pattern will tap   
   subtropical moisture. IVTs and PWATs will be above the 90th=20   
   percentiles over portions of southern California. Strong upper=20   
   level winds (125-150 kts) and a sufficient LLJ (30-40 kts) could=20   
   support efficient rain rates along the coast. CAPE between 100-250=20   
   J/Kg within a moist environment could produce 1"/hr rain rates.=20   
   Burn scars, upslope areas (where enhancement will likely occur)=20   
   and urbanized areas are especially vulnerable to flash flooding.   
      
   Ensemble mean probabilities of exceeding 2" in 24   
   hours support the slight risk area (15% chance of flash flooding),   
   especially in southern California where probabilities in the ECENS   
   and CMCE are well over 50%.   
      
   Kebede   
      
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Tue Feb 17 2026 - 12Z Wed Feb 18 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS   
   OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...   
      
   Another disturbance brings a weaker round of rainfall to the=20   
   California coast on Tuesday. Isolated thunderstorms may develop=20   
   over southern California Tuesday evening due to the presence of=20   
   weak instability and a strong LLJ (40-50 kts). Ensemble exceedance=20   
   probabilities (0-15%) and first guess fields support a marginal=20   
   risk of excessive rainfall at this time.   
      
   Kebede   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_CFjPNTwl3nk5iApf0h09oCt00t_Wa9aP9XtneXCHls2=   
   tFZSaL6tUKYadOchEJJkEqvKbQc_uGdH3VajHkH3EdLtFnU$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_CFjPNTwl3nk5iApf0h09oCt00t_Wa9aP9XtneXCHls2=   
   tFZSaL6tUKYadOchEJJkEqvKbQc_uGdH3VajHkH3tZBbpQI$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_CFjPNTwl3nk5iApf0h09oCt00t_Wa9aP9XtneXCHls2=   
   tFZSaL6tUKYadOchEJJkEqvKbQc_uGdH3VajHkH3BkqdbQA$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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